Interamerican Watch Newsletter - Issue 485


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Inter-American Watch

Thursday 4/16/2026

Analysis

Winner of Colombia-Ecuador Trade War Could Be Organized Crime
The fight against organized crime is now at the center of a trade war that has erupted between Colombia and Ecuador — one that will likely benefit only the region's criminal actors. On January 26, Ecuador's government announced a 900% increase in the tariff for transporting Colombian oil. The measure followed President Daniel Noboa's decision to impose 30% tariffs on imports from Colombia starting in February, arguing that the neighboring country is not doing enough on security. “This measure will remain in place until there is a real commitment to jointly confront drug trafficking and illegal mining along the border with the same seriousness and determination that Ecuador is showing today,” Noboa said on January 21. ...Read more >>
Source: insightcrime.org


Bolivia

Economists: The crisis will deepen this year and the economy is “in reverse and out of control”
Economists Fernando Romero and Gonzalo Chávez stated that the economic crisis will deepen this year and the country appears to be “in reverse and out of control,” after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted a 3.3% drop in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Romero said that the IMF projects a “deeper recession of -3.3%, inflation that would rise to 20.7%, and an economic environment marked by more severe restrictions.” The causes of this worsening, he added, lie in the continued decline of the hydrocarbons sector, the persistent lack of foreign currency, the forced adjustment of spending, and the impact of adverse external factors, such as the war in the Middle East. ...Read more >>
Source: noticiasfides.com


Brazil

Elections in Brazil: a new poll puts Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of Lula da Silva in a runoff scenario
Flávio Bolsonaro surpassed Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by two percentage points in a poll conducted by the Quaest Institute and released this Wednesday. ...Read more >>
Source: infobae.com


Cuba

United States suspects Cuban regime is aiding Russia in its invasion of Ukraine
According to a U.S. State Department report obtained by Axios, the Trump administration notified Congress that Cuba may have contributed up to 5,000 fighters to support Russia in the war against Ukraine, in addition to providing diplomatic and political support to Moscow. ...Read more >>
Source: infobae.com

Record numbers of political prisoners and repression in Cuba define a tyranny at war with its people
In March alone, following hundreds of arbitrary arrests, we verified 44 new political prisoners for protesting and expressing themselves: humble citizens, the vast majority with no known political affiliation. The number of women and minors among them is growing significantly, bringing the total to 1,250 political prisoners at the end of March. With 145 women convicted for political reasons, Cuba reaches a new record for political prisoners. ...Read more >>
Source: prisonersdefenders.org

Russia and China come to the rescue of the Cuban dictatorship: oil and promises to “defend its sovereignty”
An acute fuel crisis in Cuba prompted intervention from Russia and China. Moscow supplied oil to alleviate the shortage, while Beijing reiterated its political commitment to defending “Cuban sovereignty” in the face of pressure from the United States. ...Read more >>
Source: infobae.com

Gaesa, the business empire of Cuba's secret elite that manages billions of dollars
While Cuba faces shortages and blackouts, a business conglomerate linked to its Armed Forces manages billions of dollars in the shadows. Gaesa (Grupo de Administración Empresarial S.A.) has no website, no known institutional email address, and no official contact channels. It does not publish financial statements and is not included in the state budget. Neither the National Assembly of People's Power nor the Comptroller General of the Republic can audit its accounts. This is despite the fact that it pockets practically every dollar from the Cuban regime's most profitable businesses: tourism, remittances, foreign trade, and medical missions abroad. ...Read more >>
Source: bbc.com


Interamerican Institute for Democracy

The Lessons of Budapest
By our Director: Beatrice E. Rangel
...like any good building, the secret of democracy lies in its balances. This is why the Hungarians got rid of Urban, who tried to destroy these balances to establish a kind of authoritarianism with Russian leanings. ...Read more >>
Source: intdemocratic.org

The Washington-Caracas agreement: an optimistic vision
By our Director: Luis Beltrán Guerra G.
... it must be said, that despite the hardships we have endured, we should lose faith in the goodness of the present and the future, and that we should remember that we have faced more than one crossroads. Let us strive to emerge victorious from this one and vow never to fall into another. ...Read more >>
Source: intdemocratic.org

When did Europe go to hell?
By our Director: Ricardo Israel
..to understand what Europe did or what decision it made that initiated this stage of notorious irrelevance as a power, which is even more detrimental in these days of evident geopolitical dominance. ...Read more >>
Source: intdemocratic.org

Change in the Americas is only consolidated with the end of dictatorships.
By our Director: Carlos Sánchez Berzaín
Cuba defies the US ultimatum; in Venezuela, immediate elections are needed to carry out the transition of power; in Bolivia, the restoration of the essential elements of democracy is urgent; and the Nicaraguan regime can no longer be protected by its bourgeoisie. ...Read more >>
Source: intdemocratic.org

Cuba, the hour of the furnaces
Guest Columnist | Pedro Corzo
The lives of Cubans, due to the inefficiency and wickedness of their rulers, are becoming more calamitous every day, a reality to which we must add the massive exhaustion of the government discourse, while the capacity of totalitarianism to manipulate the population and the conditions that coincide, are also practically over. ...Read more >>
Source: intdemocratic.org

Nicaragua

Ortega-Murillo son at center of Nicaragua's propaganda network linked to Russia and China
The consolidation of the government's propaganda apparatus has found its chief operator in Daniel Edmundo Ortega Murillo. Yet he remains firmly in the shadow of Murillo, who exerts tight control over the state's messaging and institutions. At 46, he has become a central figure in a strategy that blends media training for loyalists, international alliances, narrative control, and the systematic normalization of falsehoods in official discourse. ...Read more >>
Source: laprensani.com

The Ortega-Murillo Administration Inflated Hospital Figures and Concealed Millions in Cost Overruns in Nicaragua
In recent years, the administration of Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo has presented an image of modernization and expansion of the public hospital network in Nicaragua, highlighting the construction of new “mega-hospitals” and boasting to the public of supposedly unprecedented healthcare coverage. However, an investigation by the media outlet Confidencial reveals that behind the official propaganda lies an opaque reality, marked by inflated figures, financial overruns, and a hospital capacity far below internationally recommended standards. ...Read more >>
Source: infobae.com


Peru

Peru bets on F-16s and takes on USD 3.5 billion in debt to have the most modern Air Force in South America
In his column for Infobae al Mediodía, international analyst Andrei Serbin Pont detailed that the Peruvian government formalized the purchase of 24 F-16 Block 70 fighter jets, a USD 3.5 billion deal that seeks to position the country at the forefront of military technology in South America. ...Read more >>
Source: infobae.com


World

Iran's regime used a Chinese satellite to attack US bases in the Middle East
Iran used a Chinese-made satellite to identify and attack US military bases in the Middle East during clashes in March 2025. ...Read more >>
Source: infobae.com