We have tough times ahead.

By: Beatrice E. Rangel - 03/12/2025

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Witnessing the collapse of the international system created and directed by the United States up to the Obama administration leads us to reflect on the consequences of that eventuality and the characteristics of the world that will emerge once the collapse process is over.

History serves as our guide, having meticulously recorded the fall of the Roman Empire and the global configuration that emerged from its ashes. Firstly, the post-Roman world lacked a single power capable of filling Rome's economic, political, and geopolitical void. On the contrary, the world became populated by middle powers, which in the case of Europe fragmented into quasi-tribal groups such as the Goths, Visigoths, Gauls, and Anglo-Saxons. The fragmentation of Europe led to endless wars that culminated in World War II. Therefore, if we are to define the post-Roman world, it was one of political instability, violent competition for power, economic specialization forced by political instability, and the pervasive presence of violence.

If we were to apply that pattern to our reality, we would end up concluding that the post-Bretton Woods world could resemble the one that emerged after the fall of Rome. In the economic sphere, with the disappearance of universally applicable rules, we will have a system of tariffs from which only nations small enough to be economically irrelevant and self-sufficient ones like Singapore and China will escape. In the political sphere, there will be a realignment. Europe will have to truly integrate because what exists today is an exclusive economic space without market integration. India will emerge as a regulatory power for much of Asia. China will disengage from the power games, determined as it is to achieve its goal of becoming the world's leading economy. Africa will be divided into regions tributary to Russia, China, India, and Europe. The Middle East will end up being led by Saudi Arabia and Israel; Latin America will continue its perpetual struggle toward development, which seems elusive but could begin with force if it were to integrate economically with the United States. The latter seems difficult, since in many parts of the region the dependency theory of development prevails, explaining the region's underdevelopment as a byproduct of US imperialism. Rivalries will intensify in Asia, Africa, and some regions of Latin America. Russia will reign supreme along the Silk Road and attempt to assert its dominance in the Arctic. In short, we will live through a century of internal and international conflicts that promise to change the geopolitical landscape of planet Earth.

It will be a much more multipolar, more regionalized world; less financially globalized and more fragmented in the areas of currencies, rules and supply chains.

From a monetary perspective, multipolarity will be evident. The US dollar will not disappear, but it will lose its exclusivity. The most likely configuration of the monetary area would see the dollar as the dominant currency in capital markets, but its use in global trade transactions will be significantly reduced. The dollar will share the stage with the euro and the renminbi, which will become the main trade currency in Asia and parts of the Middle East. Digital currencies will exhibit a significant growth rate. Cross-border digital payment networks will bypass banks, SWIFT, and even US oversight. In short, a monetary consortium is emerging that will replace the dollar's hegemony.

Another feature of this emerging world is the rise of parallel internet technologies and systems. The United States' technological hegemony is giving way to a shared technological landscape with China, Europe, and Israel. Chinese 5G and 6G networks already outpace their Western counterparts. Semiconductor supply chains will be fragmented. Starlink and Gouwang are already competing in the satellite space. Technology and finance are becoming inseparable tools of diplomacy.

Geopolitically, we will have a much more fragmented, competitive, and unpredictable world marked by Sino-American rivalry; the emergence of middle powers with their own agendas, such as Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Indonesia, and South Africa; numerous regional conflicts stemming from supply chains and the control of strategic resources; and the decline of the IMF and the World Bank. In short, a turbulent and complex world, identical to the one that emerged from the fall of the Roman Empire.

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