Venezuela: a black swan event changes the rules of the game

By: Beatrice E. Rangel - 29/06/2026

Describing the magnitude of the tragedy Venezuela faces today is almost impossible. After nearly three decades of institutional, economic, and social decline, the country has also been struck by a devastating pair of earthquakes that have destroyed entire cities and buried, along with thousands of homes, much of the hope of an exhausted population.

The disaster struck just as expectations of a possible political transition were beginning to emerge. In this hypothetical scenario, the capture of Nicolás Maduro by US authorities had ushered in a period of uncertainty, but also of renewed democratic hopes. Although the authority temporarily in charge of the government came from the same political apparatus responsible for the progressive dismantling of Venezuelan institutions, a significant portion of society believed that the country was finally embarking on the path to democratic recovery.

That feeling, however, underwent a radical transformation with the tragedy.

While thousands of citizens spontaneously rushed to remove rubble, rescue survivors, and assist those affected, the official response was slow and insufficient. The authorities' delay contrasted sharply with the swift action of civil society and the arrival of international rescue brigades from Mexico, El Salvador, Colombia, and later, Germany, Spain, and Israel.

Public perception ended up being as important as the events themselves. For many Venezuelans, the images of foreign volunteers and rescuers working tirelessly, often without logistical support from national authorities, became a powerful metaphor for the exhaustion of the existing political model.

Major crises often starkly reveal a state's strengths and weaknesses. In this case, the emergency exposed the gap between a society capable of organizing itself in solidarity and institutions whose capacity to respond was severely compromised. Ultimately, their only function was to control foreign journalists, block social media, obstruct the work of first responders, and divert international aid.

Therefore, the tragedy could become more than just a humanitarian catastrophe. It could also represent a political turning point.

Once the rescue efforts conclude and the immense task of rebuilding homes, communities, and lives begins, it is likely that a large part of Venezuelan society will once again place political change at the center of its priorities. For many citizens, material reconstruction will hardly be sustainable without a profound institutional reconstruction.

It is precisely in this context that the concept of the "black swan" becomes relevant, developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to describe extraordinary, highly improbable, and impossible-to-anticipate events whose impact profoundly alters existing dynamics. In politics, a black swan not only modifies the balance of power; it transforms the collective perception of what seemed possible or inevitable.

The seismic pairing that struck Venezuela possesses many of these characteristics. Beyond the human and material devastation, it introduces an unexpected element that disrupts the calculations of all political actors. Governments, oppositions, international allies, and even the citizens themselves are forced to rethink strategies designed for a reality that no longer exists.

History shows that many political changes do not arise solely from electoral processes or diplomatic decisions. Often, extraordinary events—wars, pandemics, economic crises, or natural disasters—accelerate transformations that seemed distant.

If this earthquake ends up becoming that "black swan" event, it won't be solely because of the magnitude of the disaster, but because it will have altered the relationship between citizens and power. And when that relationship changes irreversibly, the rules of the political game also change.

«The opinions published herein are the sole responsibility of its author».