The Trump Corollary and the World Order

By: Beatrice E. Rangel - 10/12/2025

The United States has just unveiled its national security strategy under the name of the Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine. It should be noted that this would be the second corollary to the Monroe Doctrine, whose content is summarized in a single phrase uttered by James Monroe in 1823 when he presented his annual report to the United States Congress: “Europe ought not to intervene in the Americas.” With this, James Monroe shielded the Western Hemisphere from the conflicts between European nations that led that region to multiple regional conflagrations and two world wars. In 1904, Theodore Roosevelt established the first corollary when he stated that “The United States has the right to intervene in the nations of Latin America if they are unstable or unable to manage their internal affairs.” The Trump Corollary is part of the new United States National Security Strategy published on December 4, 2025. It affirms that the Western Hemisphere (read: Latin America and the Caribbean) will be the region of highest priority for the United States. Indeed, the strategy reorients the emphasis of US military, security, and foreign policy toward the Americas, invoking a modernized version of the old Monroe Doctrine to assert US influence, counter illicit activities (such as drug trafficking), and manage migration and regional stability.

The strategy, which prioritizes foreign affairs, also aims to reduce the United States' dependence on foreign and remote supply chains and to prioritize trade relations with those nations in the hemisphere that contribute to reducing dependence on extra-continental supply chains (read: China). And, of course, it leaves the Roosevelt Corollary in force regarding intervention in cases of failed states due to the infiltration of transnational organized crime (read: Haiti and Venezuela, for instance).

The global vision of the strategy divides the world into three regions. The Western Hemisphere, where the United States is first among equals,

Europe should from now on provide its own dense defenses and possibly reach a modus vivendi with Russia, since the withdrawal of the United States will leave the field clear to advance after Ukraine on Poland and Hungary, and of course use energy products as a sword for its economic penetration into the heart of Europe.

Then there's China, which seems to be assuming control of the Asian order, but is implementing a containment strategy to prevent it from attempting to annex Taiwan. This, of course, must be causing Japan some concern. Taiwan, on the other hand, must feel relieved by the document's declaration that its independence will be protected through a policy of deterrence that will lead the United States to quintuple its military presence in Asian waters. Because, fortunately for Taiwan, a third of world trade flows through the first ring of islands, which includes Japan, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Taiwan. However, this presence will have to be financed by the United States, its allies (namely Japan and South Korea), and the countries under its protection. In short, the NATO model is being transferred to the Pacific Ocean.

Returning to the Western Hemisphere, while the National Security Strategy doesn't explicitly state it, it's clear that the United States is aware that the successful redeployment of the third wave of technological development demands a set of raw materials that are either absent or not readily available within its borders, such as rare earth elements. It's also aware that it will need to establish manufacturing facilities for quantum computer components in the region to mitigate the risk of economic shocks or sabotage by hostile powers. Furthermore, it's clear that the US will attempt to reduce the economic impact of the decline in domestic aggregate demand by spurring demand from other countries in the hemisphere.

And in my view, this is where the strategy's Achilles' heel lies, because for this to happen, vibrant and growing middle classes are needed south of the Rio Grande. But it turns out that the economic policies of almost all nations, with the exception of Barbados, Chile, Costa Rica, and Uruguay, have been characterized by fiercely attacking the middle classes and favoring a non-competitive business sector that thrives thanks to tariff barriers. Additionally, the redeployment of factories for the production of components for quantum computers demands a digitally fluent workforce. And it so happens that Latin America is a region with a significant digital divide, placing it after Sub-Saharan Africa and North Africa. Therefore, it will be necessary to begin by training the workforce of Latin American countries in digital skills, a task that could take at least a decade, assuming that policymakers realize that this is a fundamental task to avoid missing the boat on development, as already happened with the Alliance for Progress.

In short, the new U.S. National Security Strategy is a positive step toward clarifying the objectives the United States pursues globally and represents, in a way, an opportunity for the nations of the Western Hemisphere. The big question is whether these nations will understand what it entails and rise to the challenge of these new circumstances.

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