The sounds and silences of announced conflicts

By: Beatrice E. Rangel - 13/03/2025

The past six weeks have been marked by a deafening saber-rattling in Washington, DC, a city where Elon Musk is brandishing his cleansing sword like a modern-day Sir Galahad to destroy anyone who stands in the way of achieving the rescue of the Holy Grail. The Holy Grail, of course, is defined as the achievement of a bureaucratic cleansing of such magnitude that the occupant of the American executive branch faces no obstacles in carrying out his plans.

The noise from Washington contrasts with the silence from Beijing, whose chief executive was present at the Chinese congress called the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference. There, he delivered a serene, clear, concise, and forceful speech. The Chinese people must prepare to rely on their own strengths, which include the world's largest market, with 400 households with the purchasing power of the middle class in Europe or the United States; technological advances in artificial intelligence already surpass those of the West; the country has no domestic or foreign debt; and Chinese society is highly integrated. And the industrial apparatus relies on inputs and raw materials from a group of countries that have benefited from infrastructure investment projects. And while there was no mention of Washington in the speech, it was clear that he was signaling to the Chinese people that they should prepare for unprovoked external aggression.

That speech, to which neither traditional media, blogs, nor influencers have paid much attention, constituted the launch of a new international policy whose milestones include: in the area of manufacturing, the replacement of trade with the United States with greater and more intense trade with Europe; the provision of international development assistance to all nations identified as producers of key inputs for the Chinese value chain; and the strengthening of the yuan as an investment currency.

Thus, assuming no armed conflict linked to Taiwan's independence occurs, a new global geopolitical map would emerge in which Europe and China constitute a hub of organized industrial growth, while a group of countries in the so-called Global South see their infrastructure improve, and with it, their economic conditions. Parts of Africa, Asia, and Latin America would enter the equation.

The United States, for its part, clearly intends to make Arctic conquests, attracted by the region's geopolitics and the bountiful presence of rare minerals. With the Panama Canal under control, Brazil in economic chaos, Argentina on the road to resurrection, and Mexico besieged by criminal cartels and American tariffs, the United States has a clear path to create a new power system in which it partners with Russia and shares the Arctic's wealth between them. Additionally, it would have the support of Narendra Modi of India, King Erdogan of Turkey, of course Israel, and possibly Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries, as well as the Philippines and Indonesia. Hungary may leave the European Union to join this bloc.

The world would thus have two engines of growth, and perhaps a period of peace and stability would prevail.

But since none of these movements are immune to affecting the specific interests of important sectors of the elites of the nations subject to realignment, relatively serious conflicts may arise along the path to the formation of new blocs. In Africa, for example, there is a core of countries governed remotely by Russia via the Africa Corps, formerly the Wagner Group. These nations could decide to attack targets aligned with China. Hungary could be Europe's scab in Russia's penetration plans. And Russia could attempt a larger confrontation by attacking the Baltic nations. This would create a chain of conflicts that, individually, could not overthrow the world order.

In this case, instead of the world heading toward a realignment of its economy and political alliances, it would likely begin the journey toward another global conflagration. The outlook is not auspicious!

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