The end of OPEC?
By: Beatrice E. Rangel - 28/04/2026
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The announcement by the United Arab Emirates that it is leaving the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has sparked predictions about the possible demise of the organization that has shaped global energy history since the mid-20th century.
These forecasts, however, do not seem to take into account key elements of the organization's history, the energy transition, and the economic events that give the institution vitality and relevance.
The first factor to consider is the organization's resilience. OPEC has survived far worse shocks. Its demise has been declared numerous times, following the oil glut of the 1980s, the oil extraction revolution from the shale formations that covered the large reservoirs in the US, and repeated internal disputes. But the historical reality is that some members have left the organization, as is the case with Qatar and Ecuador. The latter has joined and left several times without anyone noticing. OPEC adapts to market fluctuations or the departure of members by reducing supply, not collapsing. The organization's resilience stems from its primary function, which is none other than coordinating supply among the major exporters to influence global oil prices.
Secondly, before rushing to judgment, we must consider the relative weight of the United Arab Emirates within OPEC. This nation is not the center of gravity of OPEC. It has its influence, but the backbone of OPEC remains composed of Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, and Kuwait. And within this group, Saudi Arabia is the dominant power because its production capacity and geopolitical acumen lead it to play a balancing role in the global oil market. With the UAE's departure, OPEC loses a relatively disciplined member and the pressure from a country that constantly demands increased production quotas. OPEC, however, will not lose its ability to set oil prices in the global market due to the UAE's withdrawal.
The biggest problem is internal tension, not the departure of a member. The United Arab Emirates has had periodic clashes with OPEC over its production quota. In this regard, they argue that they have invested heavily in expanding their production capacity and therefore their quota should be larger. This position of the United Arab Emirates reflects a deep structural problem plaguing OPEC: some members want higher prices (restricting supply), while others want higher volumes (maximizing current revenues).
That conflict—not the departure of a member—is what could annihilate OPEC in the medium or long term.
The energy period ahead (2035-2045) promises to be a pendulum era. That is, with price fluctuations as the United States' shale oil reserves are depleted; the world moves toward electrification in a zigzag fashion; and alternative energy sources gain traction. In this scenario, OPEC will remain an important player in the global economy. But its role will not be central. It will take center stage when there is an oil shortage to balance the market. In other words, its role will be intermittent, with prices determined by the interaction of supply and demand, with OPEC intervening as a regulating force. Likewise, geopolitical power will be defined by the energy source that assumes the central role, displacing oil to a secondary or tertiary position. But this is still a few decades away. Consider the coal-oil cycle, for example. Oil did not "eliminate" coal overnight. It took about 60–80 years (roughly the 1880s to 1960s) for oil to surpass coal as the dominant global energy source—and even then, coal hasn't disappeared. In this century, the transformations will likely be faster. The internet, for example, took only twenty years to displace traditional telecommunications. But even so, oil will likely continue to be an energy source for some industrial and domestic uses throughout this century. With less prominence, but without disappearing. And as long as there is oil, there will likely be OPEC.
«The opinions published herein are the sole responsibility of its author».