In Venezuela, the only luxury the opposition cannot afford is irrelevance.

By: Ricardo Israel - 04/08/2024

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The democratic opposition has come a long way since it achieved unity. He overcame the repression, the missteps of the regime, and defeated it at the polls and in the streets. Now, and as appropriate, it is focused not only on defeating a person but on defeating the system, the dictatorship, for which it must act with the confidence that it will be the future and legitimate government.

This week has shown that we have learned from past mistakes and inadequacies. As winners who conquered fear and although the regime remains in denial, it has managed to actually begin the transition to democracy, the Venezuelan one, with its own characteristics, some different from what has happened in other classic ones.

By representing the majority of Venezuelans, what now corresponds, and without complexes, is that the negotiation be forced on a regime that does not want it. And to have a peaceful transition, it is necessary that the sectors of Chavismo that want isolation be defeated, and that they be prevented from seeking refuge in trenches and tunnels to continue their war.

You can learn from past experiences, both good and bad examples, what to do and what to avoid. What has been achieved so far shows what has been learned, since, for example, the 2013 election taught them that they had to defend the victory in the streets and that they needed to show the world that they had the evidence of the Chavista defeat, both, with all success. And the possession of the evidence not only surprised Miraflores, but certainly also Cuban intelligence, which is even more remarkable.

Now it is appropriate to continue showing the learning, since, for example, the 2018 event showed the importance of external work and especially of the narrative, since on that occasion in practice and as an example, both the Secretary General of the OAS and the The EU said they did not recognize Maduro's victory, however, nothing happened and the dictator managed to regain his power. For its part, the frustrated experience with the fifty countries that recognized Juan Guaidó as interim president, left the lesson that the dictatorship cannot be allowed to impose irrelevance on the democratic alternative.

If learning from the experience of 2013 has been an example, now is the time to show that it was also learned from 2018 and what happened to Guaidó. Both experiences must serve the objective of the current time, which is to impose negotiation on a regime that does not want it, because it knows that it would be another nail in the dictatorial coffin, the beginning of the end of its monopoly on power, since it alone The fact that the opposition is recognized as a relevant actor is a triumph for it and from that moment on there is no repressive return for the regime.

It also means that, at the international level, negotiation would be a fact that for China and Russia portends a new stage, as well as forces the US to pay more attention, which is not easy, as the power is in the final stretch. of their highly disputed elections. However, this attention is essential, both to ensure a peaceful transition and so that well-known Chavistas other than Maduro, Diosdado or General Padrino see that a negotiated transition is the most reasonable alternative for the country and also for them.

That is, defeat of the regime, but also its division, for which it is key to interest the United States as well as act as a future government, opening as soon as possible a channel of public relations with China and Russia, which would also ensure that both the business community and the unions understood that they must consider these proposals. This strategy also requires approaching state institutions such as the judiciary and electoral institutions, to reduce the automatic support they have given to the dictatorship, which would be another nail in the dictatorial coffin.

Ultimately, the day the regime accepts a negotiation, the photo of the first meeting, regardless of its level, would be a historical document of its defeat and the winners would have imposed exactly the same scenario as if on the night of Sunday the 28th Maduro I would have recognized that triumph. This is so, since this would have happened from the moment that a situation tentatively existed where the regime could have extended a negotiation until January 10, 2025, the deadline according to legal regulations. By the way, it was very unlikely that Venezuela would have resisted such a long period, but its occurrence was possible.

Today, the self-coup has entrenched the regime, but Venezuela needs it to be defeated here as well. In fact, for a disobedience of international impact, the opposition should influence the countries whose ambassadors have been expelled, so that in practice they do not accept Caracas breaking relations, doing everything possible to keep that door open. Because? For the simple reason that the elections were won, and, therefore, your first duty is to think about what benefits or harms Venezuelans, and today, the exile is of such magnitude that the closure of the embassies would create enormous problems. to many thousands of migrants who need documents for their current life, or to continue traveling. For the rest, here are some countries that have already recognized Edmundo González as a winner.

Venezuela is not Albania, so everything possible must be done to ensure that isolation fails, which is why it is important that friendly countries do not accept the breakup that Caracas wants to impose, and with or without an ambassador, as long as there is a dictatorship it will always be necessary. have places of refuge, and except in Latin America, in the rest of the world there are not many who recognize political refuge through treaties. Finally, we must keep in mind that in the definitions of the governments of Latin America and the United States itself, the fear of a new wave of immigration figures prominently today, so isolation would help the strategy that the dictatorship may have, either directly or imitating what Havana has done several times.

All of this configures properly Venezuelan elements in this transition, confirming that in each transition there are original elements as well as similarities, which applies to all those that have been mentioned as useful to understand what is happening and what is coming. In other words, we must accept that we will witness a mixture, useful examples, but also useless for what should be done and what should be avoided, so confidence must prevail that since Sunday the 28th we are experiencing a “Venezuelan transition”, starting with the complementary role of María Corina and Edmundo González, which has not occurred in the same way in the region or in Eastern Europe.

The confidence of Venezuelans in them is great, so it is key to properly identify those issues that interest other countries, since this week there has been greater interest in Venezuela than many expected, because the previous indifference had been too much, but It always remains less than what the importance of Venezuela requires, since with Chávez a democratic setback began in the region that the opposition's victory could reverse. This is how oil and not only the presence of Cuba and Iran matter for the US, while, having no permanent interests, the issue of paying debts is key for China and Russia, while massive irregular immigration matters. to Latin America (and the US)

We insist that, as a future government, the victors must now propose to neutralize and relativize supports that seem to be fundamental for the survival of the regime, such as those of China and Russia.

How is it done?

In only one way, speaking of the payment of the debt(s), starting from the basis that the only thing that is certain about them is that they are always paid, in one way or another, although it would be reasonable to understand that it is still not convenient to talk about oil with them, because that is of interest to the US, which would not see it well, which is nothing new, since oil was the fundamental element for the times that the White House negotiated and/or reduced sanctions to Maduro (and his figurehead and his nephews), in something that does not dignify the American tradition, but is a timely introduction to the realism that normally predominates between countries.

The important thing is that we never lose clarity that the main objective is the end of the dictatorship, which in the current reality of Venezuela occurs parallel to the challenge to the regime, always in the context of its own legality, the same one that served to defeat it. at the polls. In this new stage, after the triumph, the slogan for the opposition should be “act as an elected government”, without power, but with legitimacy, with the “auctoritas” of the Romans, but not yet with the “potestas” that will only come , when you can have access to quotas of state power.

However, there are many things that can be done now, that allow us to be an increasingly relevant actor, inside and outside the country. Starting abroad, since neither Edmundo González (EG) nor María Corina Machado (MCM) can travel because the government would prevent them from re-entering, if presence can be marked at a triple level:

a) traveling, since nothing prevents emissaries of both, the president-elect and the leader of the transition, from formally visiting all the capitals possible, to be received by presidents or prime ministers, either to thank the recognition or asking those countries that have not done so, to not only recognize the victory, but also the winners such as the new government, joining the US, Panama, Peru, Ecuador, Costa Rica, Argentina and Uruguay. This can and should be done, since it would facilitate the negotiation, which would also help to be received in Moscow and Beijing.

b) The US is essential, and the task is to overcome a situation where the November elections take up such attention in such a way that even interest in the wars in Ukraine and Gaza is maintained only to the extent that it benefits or harms the electoral objective, which explains the fact that today Washington is reluctant to make new commitments, so a lot of political skill will be required for Venezuela to have a presence. It would undoubtedly help if the Venezuelan case could be presented as something that benefits the electoral possibilities of Democrats as well as Republicans.

c) In order to open a hole in the wall that the regime is constructing itself rather by hand, it would be very relevant for the Chavista nomenklatura to understand that a new stage is now being experienced, and for that purpose it would help if the opposition managed to establish a relationship public with China and Russia. In the context that they are the winners who are preparing to be the government, Moscow and Beijing will adapt more easily to the new reality, if they listen to what they want to hear, that they are going to be paid and that these meetings generate a conversation, that a Once they are government they would be negotiations, with their own calendar.

However, I am convinced that before talking about oil with them, the future government needs to do so with the US since today fuel is as important to them as democracy, as demonstrated by the Barbados post. And that must be done formally, hopefully in the White House and with publicity. Furthermore, the characteristics of a market society allow it to be done simultaneously, both with the political leadership, government and Congress, as well as with private companies. In this regard, no one would be surprised if in search of investment the future economic and oil managers do what Chavismo cannot do or if they try they are not believed, a kind of “Venezuela Day”, both on the New York Stock Exchange York and perhaps in parallel perhaps in Houston, organizing there a large conference open to interested investors, where experts from the future government present the plans they have in mind. Due to its characteristics, not only Americans would participate, but from anywhere, including interested Russian and Chinese companies, an opportunity where one could talk about oil with them, without anyone being surprised. In addition, it serves the opposition, so that the West becomes more interested than it has been.

An activity of this type would arouse great interest, not only abroad but also within Venezuela, since one could talk about figures that could complement the ideas for Venezuela to once again be an oil power, as it was for so long in democracy.

The truth is that international solidarity has been less than expected before the election, but there is no doubt that the stupidity of the regime with its kind of self-coup has helped interest recover. The regime has entrenched itself by relying not only on Cuba, Iran, China and Russia but also on its distinctive characteristic, that of being a true cartel of organized crime, not only in drugs but also in the illegal exploitation of gold and the like.

The task of the opposition is to get him out of the trenches and tunnels in which he has taken refuge and it is for the opposition's own benefit, since it is not in his interest that the war of movements where he is demonstrating greater agility than Chavismo (and Cuba, forget it) becomes a war of attrition that harms the opposition and benefits the transnational support that organized crime provides to Caracas.

Therefore, in terms of war, rather than wearing itself out in fixed positions, the opposition must seek to flood Chavista trenches and tunnels, which is also achieved with a movement strategy that seeks to reduce the support that national and international allies provide to Chavismo. This is especially relevant in the case of State institutions such as the armed forces and police, the judiciary or the electoral branch, so that they capture the message that Venezuelans understood so well on July 28, that Maduro is an issue of the past and that the most convenient for everyone is to negotiate a peaceful transition, where the United States can collaborate with a way out of the current dictatorship, acting if requested, as guarantor of the agreements.

In that it is almost irreplaceable, since they can collaborate both to offer a way out to Chavista sectors that are not the authors of the disaster and they can also help show the door to all of them, depending on how the negotiation goes. To do this, negotiation is first necessary, since otherwise there will not be formal participation by the United States through permanent officials of the State Department, and as has been said, the interest of the political constituents is to be in their elections and not in Caracas.

Be it one path or another, after Barbados, it is to be hoped that they have learned the lesson that was so difficult for Venezuelans to understand, that Chavismo, whether the original product or Maduro, simply does not fulfill the commitments it makes.

Transitions are the realm of politics, and of stretching the scope of the possible, statements that will be put to the test, depending on whether they succeed in imposing a negotiation, which will allow for a peaceful end to such a prolonged dictatorship.

@israelzipper

-PhD in Political Science (Essex), Law Degree (Barcelona), Lawyer (U. de Chile), former presidential candidate (Chile, 2013)

«The opinions published herein are the sole responsibility of its author».