How can Edmundo González succeed? The democratic electoral alternative and the Venezuelan exile.

By: Ricardo Israel - 30/04/2024

Share:     

After overcoming many difficulties, with Edmundo González the democratic alternative finally had a unity candidate. It does not mean that he will win, much less that if Maduro loses, Castrochavism will hand over power. But, without unity there is no possibility of victory, it is the lesson of every defeat of any dictatorship, representing, therefore, a necessary but not sufficient condition.

Now there are many definitions, varied, of all kinds, such as, for example, if the search for justice or social peace will predominate, that is, if there will be trials for responsibilities in human rights or the leaf will be turned or something in between, what will it be? oil strategy, options in foreign relations, etc. This election is not the same as others, from the moment that if it is successful it will enter a process of transition to democracy where other decisions will come, never in black and white, but of many colors and some very difficult. As former Uruguayan president Julio María Sanguinetti said “the secret of any transition is to combine the anxiety of those who enter with the fear of those who leave.”

But first you have to win the election on July 28, and this will require a lot of discipline in selecting the issues that are estimated to lead to victory as well as consistency in transmitting the messages.

There will be issues of mobilizing importance, others of an internal nature, others of importance for the party leadership, as well as some of international repercussion. To win, much progress is made when one manages to impose the issue(s) that will dominate the public debate.

Among the most relevant, there will undoubtedly be those of importance for attracting votes, especially those voters who are most difficult to motivate to vote. And as an example, here arises an issue with great potential to be one of those, as is the case of the millions of Venezuelans that Chavismo has spread throughout the world in a few decades, including that percentage who will go abroad to vote.

It is important to reiterate the difficulties of what is being faced. In Barbados once again, Maduro did not comply with what was agreed, no surprise with the democratic opposition since it has been a habit over the years, but he lied with total impunity to the Biden White House, since the US. has preferred the stability of the oil market, perhaps disappointing for some, but a factor of realism to take into account.

In any case, it serves to understand the nature of the system, that is, it is not enough to defeat it at the polls, because it is a narco regime of transnational organized crime rather than a political coalition, and also one that is totally dependent on Havana. , in what is a true novelty, since it is usual for the most powerful country to prevail and here it happened the other way around, with the poorest, in the case of Cuba.

For all this, together with the objective of the transition to democracy, it is key that the opposition is clear that in addition to defeating Maduro, it is necessary to prevent the regime from being maintained, since if it is possible for him to hand over the leadership of the government, It could leave everything tied up with laws that require high quorums, making changes in justice, prosecutors, the National Electoral Council difficult, conditioning new appointments, as well as in the case of the armed forces, it could leave the possibility of change chained to the appointments They must come from a group or shortlist of names proposed internally, in a kind of self-generation of the new managers, etc.

The new authorities could find that they have the government, but not the power, a situation that is not black and white, and where the regime has been skillful in generating new scenarios to tie down the democrats, in line with the support received from the called and rightly “functional” opposition, that is, only on paper.

But even for this you must first win the election. And for this, an issue where we can mark a difference and distance from the regime is that of the Venezuelan exile, the largest that Latin America has known, as large or larger (it may continue to grow if the regime remains in power) that the one caused by the Syrian civil war, and without receiving even remotely the amount of resources destined for emigrants of that nationality, in a world, which also has its compass so misplaced, that it puts more pressure on the countries where they arrive than on those to whom caused this terrible humanitarian tragedy, that is, the Venezuelan dictatorship, which has rather been freed from its responsibility.

But, to address this problem with terrible consequences for everyone, the election must first be won. Let's say that, like all mass emigration, the receiving countries have received migrants of great talent and contribution, as well as the regime has managed to internationalize the dangerous crime known as the Aragua Train, considered a danger to security in several Latin American countries (Peru, Chile, others), even before this crime arrived in the United States.

That is to say, this emigration traveled throughout Latin America and the Caribbean with strong debates in several countries, which ranged from gratitude for the contribution received to worrying xenophobic rejections, which only very recently have become part of the US electoral debate.

In any case, if we mention it in this column, it is because the issue of this exile has the potential to influence the result of the election, given its importance for the vast majority of Venezuelan families, including those members less inclined to vote. or even inform yourself about the election. Furthermore, in an electoral process with many Venezuelans disillusioned by so much opposition failure, and who have only woken up from the mass phenomenon that María Corina Machado represented touring the country.

The challenge now is to preserve and if possible improve that mobilization, with González Urrutia.

Given the influence that the issue can have on the electoral decision at the family level, it should figure prominently in the list of commitments of the democratic alternative, but it should not be limited to the incumbents, but rather everyone should notice the difference with other candidates.

What can be transferred to Venezuela from the experience of other exiles, whether in Latin America or in other areas of the world? To begin with, the need arises to work on the issue now. so that the candidacy is perceived by preparing better solution policies than what exists today.

Firstly, a group with knowledge of the subject should be formed, for the purposes of recognizing degrees obtained abroad, since the best qualified will find it difficult to abandon advantageous positions achieved legitimately, having proven to be better than others, including the that they lived there.

It will be difficult for those who have obtained prominent positions at the university level to return to Venezuela, where they may also face hostility from those who feel threatened in their prestigious positions by those who return with better records. In this case, the mobilization process should be taken advantage of now to build a policy that promotes the links that these people can achieve as facilitators, between Venezuelan institutions and those of other countries, to promote exchanges and improvements at the current local level.

Secondly, due to the long time that has passed, as has happened with other mass emigrations, many people will not be able or willing to return, sometimes because they have resolved the issue of their retirement, or even more likely, because they have resolved access to to health in their adopted countries. In this case, legal modifications must be prepared now, which will allow them to take advantage of these advantages in case they decide to live in Venezuela, for which agreements with those nations are needed to achieve that result, and since this takes time, it would be good now. work these scenarios.

The issues of divided families and the medical system for the elderly can be life decisions for many people who left Venezuela without wanting to, a return that will not be easy for many, not because they do not want it, but because of the time that has passed. , since they surely have family, children and grandchildren who have made their lives in the countries that received them, who in many cases have already built their own family, which makes the decision to return difficult.

Thirdly, from now on, establish the working groups and contacts necessary to receive international financing for the return. Financing exists not only in countries that have laws in this regard, but also in those that have political processes that allow governments to make similar decisions. This possibility also includes institutions such as the UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency or similar that can help materialize what is indicated here, as well as the development aid agencies of the countries that have them, and in all these In some cases, they can help finance at least the tickets, which are still an important expense in large family groups.

Fourthly, the decision to return can be harmed or helped by the existence or absence of facilities for the entry of household belongings or the car, which is still an important decision for people who left Venezuela with everything they had and managed to set up their residences, and now they could face a situation similar to that of so long ago. Therefore, this element must be publicly debated from now on, because a convincing campaign will also be needed for those who have always remained in Venezuela, and who may consider it unfair that the returnees are favored. And if I mention it, it is because that is what happened in some countries in the region, after the end of the military dictatorships of the last century.

The work of these groups can be used to later transform them into acts of government through decrees or laws, with situations that may need to be modified or adapted later.

This is just one example of the type of issues where the democratic opposition can mark differences, not only with Maduro, but also with the other functional “opposition” candidates to the dictatorship, where it can and must be demonstrated that it is different, not only in the way of understanding democracy and human rights, but also that they are already prepared to govern and make a successful transition.

To win at the polls, the candidacy needs an internal structure that allows it to function in terms of scenarios in order to also be prepared for the surprises that the Miraflores Palace has surely prepared, which by the way may include, and until the last moment, changes in the rules of the game. The democratic opposition should not underestimate dictatorial power, which begins with the thought that the result may be narrow, so we must not underestimate the fear of change, clientelism, populism, salaries or public subsidies (which a percentage believes which comes not from taxes, but from government favor), the manipulation of hunger as a voting factor, and, by the way, dependence on health, food packages and the like.

The leaders of the dictatorship must be afraid of advances in the International Criminal Court, so, in the event of the victory of the democratic alternative, the regime can change the rules of the game, even the day after the election, if that is. He doesn't decide to kick the board. For example, it could begin a massive process of privatization of public property expropriated at a low price, where friends of power or capitalists who only provide their name are favored, to hide the true Chavista owners.

In this regard, we should not think only of the oligarchs of Russia or Ukraine, but of a much closer example geographically, such as that of Pinochet, who in Chile did exactly that towards the end of his government, and who has survived until Today, in such a way that even the current Boric government was associated (via the state copper company CODELCO) with none other than one of the richest men in the country, the former son-in-law of the dictator, who made his fortune by receiving the mining company. Soquimich, and which today is a partner of the government in the exploitation of lithium, since Chile is a country blessed with this key element for electric cars.

A situation of this type could have profound consequences for the future of the Venezuelan economy as well as for the media and freedom of the press.

It will not be easy to defeat such a long dictatorship, just as it was not easy to defeat Pinochet in his plebiscite. Furthermore, Chavismo has proven that it has no interest in fulfilling the promises and commitments it has made, so - let us insist - its first reaction will be to reject the result if it does not like it, accustomed as it is to impunity, Furthermore, in general dictatorships hold elections to win them, so everything that can be done to reduce their levels of internal and external support must be a priority for González Urrutia's candidacy.

Every opportunity to separate (or try to do so) the regime from its national support base (institutions such as Justice, armed forces, Electoral Council) must be taken advantage of, since it falls to those who are afraid of change and uncertainty.

Edmundo González's candidacy is going better than some previous ones, since this time there is a unity coalition supporting him. Now, it needs to add what other democratic candidates have lacked in other years, and that is first, clarity, not so much in the objectives of democracy and human rights, but that the voters know what happens the day after the victory, since they do not It is enough to show the promised land, but it is relevant to describe the journey and its duration, as well as whether there will be a crossing of the desert.

Second, Edmundo González needs to be perceived as the person who will make the decisions as well as the head of a coalition that provides certainty about governance and governability, that is, one who meets the double quality that the Romans demanded of their leaders, that they have potestas (the ability to be obeyed) and auctoritas (the legitimacy to be obeyed). A couple of millennia later, that hasn't changed.

Third, in addition to demonstrating that a good government can be created after one as bad as Maduro's, it is necessary to provide the greatest possible certainty about the type of transition that is going to be led (negotiated, institutionalized, disruptive?) in addition to answers about the future of oil, the payment of debt to China or Russia, the role of foreign investment or human rights legislation. And after such a sectarian government, González must embody the ideal of representing the entire country and all Venezuelans.

Fourth, the United States continues to be the essential ally, and despite all the doubts after having opted for oil rather than democracy, we must be clear about what is going to be asked of it, which must be that it is fully played for the democratic alternative and for its candidate, since that definition is needed now, in the course of the elections, because the vote of many undecided people can influence. And for the rest, if Washington gambled for Arévalo in a less repressive reality such as Guatemala and did not do so for María Corina Machado, despite the presence of Russia, Iran and China at Maduro's side, now is the time Let him do it for González, so without complexes or doubts we must seek to ensure that the power, so insecure today, is this time on the right side of history, above all, due to the electoral impact it has.

Finally, it is an election that, despite the difficulties, must be won without any question as to its legitimacy. In that sense, it would help if the campaign was not sad, but one that transmitted joy and optimism, as well as faith, as the song says, an electoral campaign that invites people to join and not subtract.

Along with transmitting confidence and knowledge of the art of governing, the coalition and its leaders must prepare for a transition to democracy that will not be a dramatic act, but a complicated process, with roses, but also with many thorns.

In conclusion, as a candidate, González Urrutia can triumph with democracy and human rights as his banner, but it also helps that great principles become understandable to everyone by emphasizing issues of personal importance to voters, combining emotion and reason, that is to say, at the same time, data and story, and without a doubt, the exile of more than seven million figures in the drama of (almost) every family, an exile that by the way incorporates in its massiveness from great talents to the Aragua Train, a reality that It must be understood, but also accepted.

In addition to the great principles, the elections that aspire to defeat a dictatorship like the Venezuelan one are also won by imposing conversations. For the votes, the most difficult are those where each and every member of the family participates and without exception they are able to give their opinion, incorporating not only the present, but also memories of the past and visualizations of the future.

Like no other topic, both emotion and reason behind a drama, and with an additional effect, since when Hugo Chávez was elected there was only one dictatorship in the region, the Cuban one. Today there are several, a fact that Chavismo made possible. That is why his defeat in the land where he was born would also mark the possibility of redemocratization of the entire region.

@israelzipper

PhD in Political Science (Essex), Law Degree (Barcelona), Lawyer (U de Chile), former presidential candidate (Chile, 2013)

«The opinions published herein are the sole responsibility of its author».