Could Iran become a new Libya?

By: Beatrice E. Rangel - 11/03/2026

As the conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran drags on, the chances of finding a non-violent solution diminish. On the contrary, disruptive forces are beginning to emerge on the Iranian political scene. And even though the regime founded by Ruhollah Khomeini shows no signs of surrendering, its grip on power is beginning to evaporate. While outward signs do not reveal weakness, its ability to control the country's interior regions is becoming increasingly limited. This is, of course, masked by a facade of strength that allows it to continue governing despite having lost its weapons, drone, and missile factories, as well as its high and mid-level leadership in the US and Israeli attacks. Furthermore, the regime has chosen a new leader whose background is not exactly one of understanding and negotiation. On the contrary, the new Supreme Leader, Mukhtaba Khamenei, is considered one of the hardliners and most extremist elements of the surviving leadership. This selection was made after US President Donald Trump warned that Khamenei was unacceptable to the United States. And to further project that strength after the election of the Supreme Leader, members of the Revolutionary Guard have proceeded to mine the waters of the Strait of Hormuz, thereby suspending all navigation. Because no ship can set sail in this 21st century without insurance coverage for its hull, its crew, and its cargo. The mere news of the mines has prompted insurance companies to inform their clients that they will not issue policies for that route. Therefore, the moment of energy paralysis is approaching for much of the world, particularly for Asia, whose economies are fueled by oil from the Persian/Arabian Gulf. It is unnecessary to dedicate space to describing the recessionary scenario that awaits the global economy.

And while the West focuses on trying to meet its energy demands, China stockpiles Russian oil, whose soaring price fuels the war of occupation in Ukraine. Russia also supplies Iran with weapons and intelligence services. Both are used by Iran's interim regime to escalate the conflict. And so the whole world wonders how a regime lacking popular support, financially bankrupt, and having just lost its entire leadership in a single day, can possibly regenerate. The key lies in something Reza Palhavi, the last Shah of Iran, said: “The world sees the ayatollahs as if they were ordinary people. They are not. They see them in their own image. They shouldn't.”

The Shah was referring to the extremist and totalitarian nature of the Shiite theocracy upheld by Iran's clerics. He believed this characteristic would lead the country to chaos. And he was right. Today, Iran is a country that has seen the disappearance of its once-thriving middle class, forged in the shadow of oil. Between 30% and 5.5% of the population lives below the poverty line. And Shiite Sharia law has suppressed any semblance of freedom.

That violent and repressive regime, however, may contain within it the forces of its own dissolution. For nearly four decades, the ayatollahs have oppressed the non-Persian peoples living in Iran with even greater force. Particular severity has been applied to the Baloch and the Kurds, whose nations occupy large swathes of Iranian territory.

The current conflict has weakened the chains of repression in many parts of the country. Food and fuel shortages, particularly in the interior, have fueled regional discontent, giving rise to regional and ethnic tensions. Iran is home to several ethnic regions, such as Kurdistan, Balochistan, Khuzestan, and the Azeri nations. If the central state were to weaken drastically, these regions could become centers of power or zones of conflict. And the Iran we know could disappear. Chronic instability would then take hold in the Middle East for decades.

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