Can Bolsonaro satisfy the people of Brazil?

By: Beatrice E. Rangel - 14/10/2026

On October 25, the people of Brazil will deliver their verdict on who will govern them for the next four years. Flávio Bolsonaro seems to be benefiting from Lula's waning popularity and the profound weariness his figure evokes in a segment of the electorate. The former leader of Brazilian workers has become, for many, a kind of magician's puppet: he repeats slogans without translating them into initiatives that align with his voters' aspirations. He has dedicated a good part of his third term to criticizing the United States, promoting Latin American integration, and promising that Brazil will rank among the five most successful economies in the world. However, even taking a 3% growth rate as a benchmark, this performance falls short compared to the three regional growth stars cited in this assessment: Guyana, with 12.2%; the Dominican Republic, with 4.6%; and Panama, with 4.1%.

But evaluating Lula's legacy requires more than simply comparing growth rates. It also requires measuring the alignment between his decisions and the goals of those who elected him. According to the opinion polls considered in this analysis, his voters expected the architect of Bolsa Família, an effective tool for combating poverty, to also create the conditions for achieving the dream of homeownership. Forty-four percent of Brazilians identify this aspiration as their primary objective. Security is another priority: 60% complain about insecurity in the streets, parks, and other public spaces. Added to this is the desire for economic independence: 56% aspire to have the resources to create a business capable of sustaining themselves.

When these aspirations are contrasted with the perceived results of Lula's policies, a disconnect emerges. It's not that his government lacks housing programs or economic support, but rather that, for a segment of Brazilians, these policies haven't translated into sufficient improvements in daily life. Adding to this gap is Lula's increasingly caustic tone, and it becomes clearer why so many voters believe it's time for a change of leadership.

This opens up a political opportunity for Flávio Bolsonaro, one that the disenchantment with Lula favors, but which does not guarantee his victory. If he reaches the presidency, the decisive question will be whether he understands the priorities of his voters and makes addressing them the focus of his government. If, on the other hand, he dedicates resources and energy to building a network of right-wing political groups while neglecting the dreams of those who elected him, he could limit his time in power to a single term. When a leader ignores the reasons that underpinned their election, they lose political legitimacy and facilitate the rise of someone who seems to better embody citizens' expectations. Politics then becomes a game of musical chairs: voters remove the ruler's chair and look for a replacement.

Alternation of power is part of democracy: citizens elect a representative of sovereignty and can withdraw their trust. The problem arises when a succession of disappointments prevents the government from sustaining the policies necessary to resolve difficulties that require time. If frustration takes hold during the first twenty months of a government, regaining trust demands extraordinary results, difficult to achieve in such a short timeframe. The electorate then embarks on a search for a successor, while the continuity of essential public policies, such as those aimed at improving security, weakens. It is not alternation of power itself that threatens democracy, but rather the repeated inability of governments to respond to citizens' aspirations. This accumulated frustration can fuel the temptation toward authoritarianism.

Let us hope that Flávio Bolsonaro, if elected, understands the reasons for his popular support and governs accordingly. Brazilians who trust him expect housing, security, and opportunities to build businesses. An alliance of right-wing Latin American parties will hardly replace the obligation to respond to these expectations. The measure of his success will be his ability to translate electoral support into concrete improvements for the lives of Brazilians.

«The opinions published herein are the sole responsibility of its author».