Bolivia and the pendulum of history

By: Beatrice E. Rangel - 19/08/2025

Rodrigo Paz's victory in the presidential elections held in Bolivia on August 17 reveals the presence of forces for change in Latin America. These forces are riding the currents of the exhaustion of a governance model that, while inciting the enthusiasm of the people, quickly revealed its authoritarian roots and economic folly. As in Venezuela in 2024, when the people resoundingly rejected the Chavista leadership, in Bolivia 82% of the electorate voted against the MAS. In both cases, the ruling leadership had plunged these two nations into misery and political violence, resulting in the loss of the respect and support of the growing Bolivian middle class and the diminished and impoverished Venezuelan middle class. This event also reveals the end of a governance model marked by authoritarianism that, cloaked in leftist banners, destroyed the rule of law and caused a resounding decline in the living conditions of families.

The beginning of the rise of left-wing authoritarian regimes was marked by the deep discontent of the working classes with the conduct of national elites during the last two decades of the 20th century. The monopoly of power exercised by these elites and the continued deterioration of public services were unbearable for the majority. Therefore, once discontent was expressed and the conclusion reached that the authoritarian alternative was not a democratic one, a civic mobilization should have occurred to lead to its replacement. But these governments, advised by the leadership of the Sao Paulo Forum, represented by Fidel Castro and Luiz Innacio Lula da Silva, implemented the modality of perpetual government by subverting democratic norms, especially those that safeguard sovereignty, such as electoral processes. In this way, they seized power for much longer than the respective constitutions stipulated and, of course, than the sovereigns of Venezuela or Bolivia were willing to tolerate. And civil society organized to expose the fraud and elect leaders committed to democratic practices. Bolivia began the process six years ago when organized civil society presented the world with evidence of the fraud attempted by the MAS. Venezuela followed in 2024 when civil society, led by Maria Corina Machado, demonstrated to the world that its candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez, had triumphed in the presidential elections.

The establishment of leftist authoritarian regimes has been particularly harsh in Venezuela, a country from which nearly nine million migrants have fled, forced to seek survival outside its borders. Fortunately, this has not occurred in Bolivia, where—despite the economic blows inflicted by the MAS administrations—there is a vibrant middle class committed to economic growth that has been able to take advantage of the development of neighboring Peru, a leader in Latin America in terms of economic stability. The division within the MAS itself also played in favor of democracy. The disagreement between Evo Morales, founder and eternal president of the MAS and the country, and Luis Arce, the current president, was public and caustic. Faced with this situation, the MAS leadership devised a truly absurd plan. It presented several candidates with the aim of diluting the rejection, fracturing the vote against its administration, and committing fraud. Needless to say, the plan only served to accurately portray the level of rejection of the government and its party, and to make fraud impossible.

The outcome in Bolivia, in addition to weakening the MAS to the point of possible extinction, has the advantage of paving the way for a new generation to take power. Rodrigo Paz belongs to Generation X, the generation that succeeds the baby boomers and precedes the Millennials. This is a generation that enjoyed an era of peace and economic stability unknown to humanity. Members of Generation X are independent and self-sufficient. As children of workaholics, they value a balance between family and work. They are skeptical and pragmatic, therefore, well-suited to making complex decisions in a short period of time and adapting to changing situations. Jorge Quiroga, the other candidate who qualified for the runoff, is a baby boomer, so there would be no generational change if he were to win in the runoff.

Whoever becomes president of Bolivia will represent a break with the past and an opportunity to reestablish democracy in a country that has fought for it since the era of Victor Paz Estenssoro, Rodrigo Paz's great-uncle.

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