Barely a breath

By: Francisco Santos - 13/03/2026

I'm receiving messages from all over the world about last weekend's elections in Colombia. What happened? Where is Colombia headed? And how did the right and center-right fare? The answer: well and badly.

Bad news, because the results showed that Colombia remains at immense risk of moving down the populist path, as the left strengthened in Congress and demonstrated that Iván Cepeda is a very strong and unrivaled candidate on that political spectrum, unlike the center or the right. Good news, because the center and center-right primary became, on the one hand, the most voted in history, with 5.8 million votes, and showed the way to defeat the radical left: uniting and attracting the center is the key for the first round of the presidential election.

So what? First, Gustavo Petro, Iván Cepeda, and Abelardo de la Espriella's wish—to have no competition in May, in the first round of the presidential election—didn't materialize. Paloma Valencia, with those millions of votes in the primary, established herself as a very strong rival for the two radical candidates, and the possibility of her, as the center-right candidate, reaching the second round is high if she performs well during these months of campaigning.

What does it mean to do things right? On the one hand, we need to cultivate our core support to maintain those votes and, furthermore, expand our reach in areas where possible, particularly among urban youth, whom we haven't yet reached and whom Juan Daniel Oviedo managed to win over. We can't wait a second to start understanding the urban youth Oviedo spoke to, to broaden our base, and we must focus our efforts primarily on Bogotá.

Paloma needs to abandon the traditional Uribista rhetoric and begin to better understand the current state of the country. This doesn't mean, by any means, that she should forget about security issues and other matters on her agenda, but rather that she needs to understand that traditional anti-communist rhetoric no longer resonates with anyone, or those it does resonate with have already been swayed. Hopefully, Oviedo and Paloma will grasp what's at stake and reach a good understanding so that, on the one hand, we can be saved from the clutches of populism and, on the other, the many reforms the country needs can be implemented.

Iván Cepeda is undoubtedly still very, very strong. Will he be able to gain even more votes in the center? That depends on Claudia López, who has already made it clear she wants to run there, on Sergio Fajardo, and on all the candidates from the Great Consultation. We'll soon see in the new polls—all of which fared quite poorly, some worse than others—how much Sunday's results have changed the political landscape.

Obviously, we have to take those figures with a grain of salt and keep in mind that they won't include the vice-presidential candidates, who also make a difference. What happens if Paloma's poll numbers drop to between 15 and 20 percent? Or if they're around 10 percent?

We'll see how these consultations changed the political landscape and whether they created a more open competition with greater possibilities for the center to play a decisive role in the presidential election. For now, there's a glimmer of hope that polarization is avoidable and that the center-right can play a realistic role in the May elections.

The situation with the congressional elections is another matter entirely. Undoubtedly, the Historical Pact demonstrated strength and discipline; let's not kid ourselves, it's already the country's leading political force. The serious issue, however, is that if we include the congressmen from other parties who are likely to sell out, they could control more than half of Congress. This means that if Cepeda wins, we'll have a Constituent Assembly, laws that will definitively destroy the healthcare system, and taxes that will cripple the private sector.

The Democratic Center gained ground, but frankly, its Senate list left much to be desired. There was no new figure to energize the group, other than Álvaro Uribe. Many arrived by car, and while they may be good senators, they will never have their own political platform. Ninety percent of the senators elected by the Democratic Center would not have been elected without Uribe.

It's time to create a party that isn't dependent on Uribe, and in these extremely difficult four years, transforming the Democratic Center into that party will be a monumental challenge. What's clear is that if this isn't done, the Democratic Center will disappear, and there will be no counterweight to the strength of the left. The historical responsibility in this regard is enormous.

The final stretch has begun. Colombia's future hangs in the balance, and Paloma has seized the presidential race. United in the second round, we can avert catastrophe. That must be everyone's goal. Will we be responsible enough? Let's hope common sense prevails over ego.

«The opinions published herein are the sole responsibility of its author».