2026 or the resurgence of spheres of influence

By: Beatrice E. Rangel - 13/01/2026

Following the death of Michael Reagan, the eldest son of former President Ronald Reagan and a revered commentator in the conservative world, many followers of that family's legacy gathered in Los Angeles wondered if the world the United States is trying to forge is part of that legacy.

The simple answer is no. Because Ronald Reagan always believed that freedom was the only force capable of transforming humanity and the world. That's why he designed a foreign policy aimed at bringing freedom where it didn't exist, such as in the Soviet empire. And he focused his efforts on ending that regime, thus liberating all of Eastern Europe.

What followed was an economically globalized world, more fragmented than ever before between those who benefited from globalization and those who suffered because of it. The United States, for example, was the scene of the greatest destruction of the middle class the world has ever seen. In 1980, 66% of the American population was categorized as middle class. Then there was a wealthy 22%, and the remaining 12% were poor, concentrated in the southern states. Today, the middle class barely reaches 50%, while poor households represent 30% of the population and wealthy households 20%. And all this thanks to the bursting of the dot-com and mortgage bubbles.

The political impact of globalization has led the US leadership to believe that an international system based on universally binding rules is not in its best interests. Therefore, it is now focused on creating a world defined by spheres of influence.

This outcome is also a product of the failure of most countries to comply with the rules established after World War II. Europe, for example, never embraced the idea of free trade, and the renowned European Union leaves much to be desired in terms of economic integration and trade with the rest of the world. Furthermore, NATO funding, which placed the weight of the alliance on the United States, was intended to be temporary until Europe recovered economically. But Europeans never took that responsibility seriously once their economies resumed growth. Latin America has lurched from one economic crisis to another, accumulating defaults and debt, and shifting political pressure to the International Monetary Fund, an entity that has bailed out many nations in the hemisphere with loans to cover deficits—loans which, of course, it must repay. In trade matters, there are no markets more protected and less regionally integrated than those of Latin America, with the exception of Mexico, Chile, Colombia, and the Central American countries that agreed to free trade agreements with the United States, thanks to which the middle classes in those countries have grown at interesting rates in the last thirty years. Only Japan has an excellent record in terms of compliance with the international norms that emerged from the Second World War.

It is this situation that has led Donald Trump to break with the international regulatory framework established at the Atlantica, Bretton Woods, Dumbarton Oaks and Yalta conferences.

Thus we enter the already familiar world of spheres of influence in which the United States, Russia and China will establish their hegemony in Latin America, Europe and Asia respectively starting this decade.

That world was already experienced by our grandparents and parents since it prevailed during the Cold War; the European politics of balance of power in the 18th and 19th centuries and the Imperial Systems before the First World War.

The advantages of the system lie in reducing the risk of wars breaking out between major powers, provided that the spheres of influence are clearly defined, respected by the entire world, and that a credible threat exists against any attack. Another virtue of the system is that the world gains strategic predictability. That is, it is known who controls what and which alliances are prohibited. Finally, a world of spheres of influence facilitates coordination among the major powers. Conflicts are relegated from the global stage and restricted to inter-bloc disputes that the dominant power ultimately resolves.

In short, we are abandoning the vast universe of freedom that inspired Ronald Reagan to enter the narrow valley of boarding schools from which we may emerge better educated, but less free.

«The opinions published herein are the sole responsibility of its author».