Venezuela's transition needs a genuine opposition to launch an election campaign

By: Carlos Sánchez Berzaín - 01/03/2026

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Since the capture of Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela has been a state under US tutelage, with the US outlining "stabilization, recovery, and transition" as the three phases for liberation. With Delcy Rodríguez in charge of dismantling the dictatorship/narco-state, civil resistance is expressed through demands for the release of political prisoners and the return of exiles. However, it is essential that the opposition, which won the July 28, 2024 elections, become active by launching a campaign for "free elections and the consolidation of democracy," which is the national objective.

In international law, Venezuela is currently “a state in a particular situation,” a sui generis condition that more closely resembles a “guardianship” regime. Legally, guardianship is “any kind of protection, support, custody, or care and direction of persons and interests.” In practice, this means that the United States is protecting and supporting the Venezuelan people while dismantling the dictatorship/narco-state, using the same mafia members of that structure, with the objective of restoring the democratic conditions that allow for freedom and democracy, which do not currently exist.

After the dictator became "the prisoner Maduro" for narcoterrorism and other crimes before the justice system that sought him with a $50 million reward, Venezuela must return to normalcy, which simply consists of restoring the essential elements of democracy. This task includes dismantling the organized crime regime, ending the dictatorship of the Cuban leader, and expelling the extra-hemispheric dictatorships that use Venezuela as a base for aggression against the United States and democracies.

The United States' interest is based on its national security, which is under attack and pushed to extremely dangerous limits by the "hybrid war" unleashed by 21st-century socialism or Castro-Chavismo, using the Venezuelan dictatorship as a hub to operate forced migration, cocaine and fentanyl trafficking, human trafficking, infiltration with common crime, financing to replace politics with organized crime, disruptive groups, fake news, reputation assassination, a platform for extra-hemispheric dictatorships, and any action leading to the destabilization and weakening of democracy.

The progress toward freedom since Maduro's imprisonment has been remarkable, but it is limited by the blatant manipulation of the Rodríguez family and the group that holds power. The agenda is dictated by the United States, but the operatives—all members of the Castro-Chavista mafia—delay, fragment, dilute, and maneuver, ultimately buying time while ceding ground piecemeal, signaling that they still maintain power, albeit under their control.

What we've seen so far is that the current dictator is yielding on everything and is compliant when it comes to resource management, controlling oil sales, rebuilding the oil industry, opening up to Western investment, and other economic matters. However, she is delaying, complicating, and manipulating the release of political prisoners and the return of exiles. She's ceding economic ground and buying time politically, even using Venezuela's representation to defend the imprisoned Maduro with her ambassadors and international operatives. A change of master, but not of tactics.

The main objective of the criminal group that has held power in Venezuela since 1999 is impunity, and to achieve it, they must remain in politics, continue to be part of the system, and thus perhaps relinquish the government but not the power, which will continue to operate under their own laws and with their support. It's an updated version of Nicaragua in 1990 with Ortega and the Sandinistas, characterized by impunity, control of the armed forces, and continued existence as a legitimate political party.

The liberation process of the Venezuelan people, initiated by Machado and overseen by the United States, lacks the element of national representation. The people who triumphed in the July 28, 2024 elections, and who were subsequently subjugated through state terrorism so that Maduro, the narco-terrorist leader, could fraudulently proclaim himself president, committing crimes against humanity with the support of extra-continental dictatorships that are enemies of the United States and the democracies of the Americas, are absent.

The farce and manipulation of the dictatorship forced María Corina Machado to turn to substitute candidates, ultimately securing the election of González Urrutia and defeating the regime and its "functional opposition" or "scorpions" at the cost of her own position. After Maduro's capture, the dictatorship and its functional opposition focused their efforts on seizing control of the transition, excluding or minimizing Machado's role, without whose struggle neither the January 3, 2026, nor the capture of Maduro, now imprisoned, would have been possible.

Under these conditions, and given that the objective of US oversight is "the holding of free elections and the consolidation of democracy," the ongoing transition process requires that the winner of the 2024 elections launch an electoral campaign to activate popular mobilization. The struggle for freedom and democracy in Venezuela has the United States as a major ally, but it will always rest in the hands of the Venezuelan people, who cannot allow the realignment of the members of the criminal organization that has subjugated them since 1999, nor the continued existence of the opportunistic opposition figures who have consistently betrayed them.

*Lawyer and Political Scientist. Director of the Interamerican Institute for Democracy

«The opinions published herein are the sole responsibility of its author».