Milei, in danger

By: Luis Gonzales Posada - 18/12/2023

If Western democracies and multilateral credit organizations do not provide financial support and do not promote investments in Argentina, they will be condemning President Javier Milei to failure, the political objective of Peronism, 21st century socialism and the Puebla Group, a leftist trilogy. who considers the new president as his greatest enemy.

The libertarian has found a country devastated, in ruins, with 45% of the poor – 21 million – and 10% – 4.5 million – in poverty.

According to Milei, “6 million children tonight will go to bed hungry, they walk barefoot in the streets, others fell into drugs and 84% of students do not finish school on time.”

This dramatic panorama occurs when inflation climbs to 143% and could reach 10,000% if radical, urgent measures are not adopted, which will necessarily cause shortages, unemployment and rising prices, as is the case with gasoline, which in five days has increased 38%. .

The Minister of Economy Luis Andrés Caputo maintained that “we are going to be in a couple of months worse than before” – the Government expects inflation of up to 40% from December to February – and the fiscal adjustment will amount to US$ 20 billion, with severe cuts to transportation and energy subsidies, reduction from 18 to 9 ministries and from 106 to 54 secretariats, as well as 50% of hierarchical positions.

Furthermore, state advertising has been suspended for a year (Cristina Kirchner invested US$1,000 billion from 2012 to 2015 and Alberto Fernández, US$402 million from 2020 to 2023); there will be no more tenders or new works; The official dollar rose from 366 to 800 pesos and the provisional contracts of public employees will not be renewed, 60 thousand of them expiring at the end of December.

The Government also accumulates an external debt of US$ 300 billion, of which US$ 103 thousand are overdue payments, and US$ 10,600 to the IMF.

To the exorbitant amounts indicated we must add another US$ 100 billion of debts contracted by private companies with import suppliers.

In addition, the operating deficit of state companies is US$ 4,848 million; The volume of public employees, 3 million 600 thousand people, and the beneficiaries of social programs reaches 36% of households.

Faced with this catastrophe, there was no other route than a shock policy, which will be resisted by the Justicialist opposition, which is the strongest and best organized party and controls nine of the 23 governorates, as well as both legislative chambers.

The Libertarians, on the other hand, only have 32 of 267 deputies (15%) and seven of 72 senators (10%), a weak group that must seek to coalition with other non-Peronist representatives to have support in Congress.

Public protests have been the strength of the opposition, since the turbulent times of General Perón.

The so-called “piqueteros” – who, due to social demands or to exert political pressure, block the circulation of streets or roads – are an institution with various nominations: Evita Movement, Polo Obrero, Excluded Workers, Standing Neighborhoods, Classist and Combative Current. And, of course, La Cámpora, directed by Máximo Kirchner, son of former presidents Néstor and Cristina, a bellicose organization with hundreds of members, many of them salaried - without working - in the leafy state apparatus.

The rude farewell of former Vice President Cristina Kirchner, raising the middle finger of her right hand, after listening to Milei's swearing-in with her hands in her pockets, announces moments of belligerence. We have no doubt that this sector will cause critical situations taking advantage of citizen unrest due to job losses and price increases. Even more so, because judicial processes are underway for corruption among senior officials of the previous administration, including the former president.

To navigate that stormy sea, you need not only a good pilot but also a high-quality crew, but there will always be the risk that the boat of change could run aground.

«The opinions published herein are the sole responsibility of its author».