Mexico: The Prisoner of Zenda

By: Beatrice E. Rangel - 21/05/2025

At the dawn of the 20th century, a novel by Anthony Hope entitled The Prisoner of Zenda circulated. It described a power struggle between the legitimate heir to the crown of Zenda and his brother, who decided to kidnap him and seize the crown for himself. Fate, however, played a trick on him. The courtiers loyal to his brother found a double, whom they crowned and who ruled until they managed to free the legitimate king from the dungeon in which his vile brother had imprisoned him.

In Mexico, it seems as if history is repeating itself, but certainly updated for the 21st century. Claudia Sheinbaum, who was overwhelmingly elected by the Mexican people, is the victim of a political kidnapping carried out by Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO). For Lopez Obrador, the sovereignty of the Mexican people does not reside in Ms. Sheinbaum but in the one who gave her what in Mexico is called the "dedazo" (the finger of the finger), or sign of presidential succession. And to ensure shared sovereignty, Lopez Obrador placed his son, Andres Manuel Lopez Beltran, at the head of the MORENA organizing secretariat. This guarantees control over the entire movement of MORENA's enormous parliamentary bloc, which represents 73% of the Chamber of Deputies and 65% of the Senate. These proportions are the bars of Ms. Sheinbaum's prison cell. Because no law is passed unless it fits with AMLO's vision for the country and the political strategy he pursues, the ultimate goal of which is to take Mexico back to the early 20th century, when a single party came to power and governed with authoritarianism cloaked in democratic garb until Presidents Salinas de Gortari and Zedillo decided to establish an economy based on free trade and true democracy.

However, just as the evil brother of the prisoner of Zenda miscalculated the power of his brother's subjects' loyalty, AMLO does not seem to have fully calculated the consequences of his usurpation of power from President Sheinbaum. For him, there will be no reaction from the middle class that was formed in Mexico on the wings of the free trade agreement with the United States. This segment of the population sees the world through different lenses than their great-great-grandparents, who came from the countryside where feudalism predominated. For them, obedience to the chief or leader was the way to survive and rise in the social ladder. Initiative and innovation were punished, and in politics, the PRI's single creed represented the mantra that held the citizenry together. But the generation that took off in the 1990s is populated by people who have gone to university, work in modern and competitive companies that supply the United States market, or have created successful national companies. They have traveled extensively, and most of their economic ties are with the world's largest democracy. These individuals are now represented by a current within MORENA or the coalition parties that form part of the Mexican Congress. The moment López Obrador's ideas clash with their vision of personal and societal progress, friction will begin to develop, and the fragmentation of MORENA will inevitably ensue. Then political rearrangements will follow, which only President Sheinbaum will be able to resolve, and it will be at that moment that her liberation will occur. If this happens, President Sheinbaum may become the first Latin American leader to undo authoritarianism and begin the consolidation of a democratic state. For now, her energies are consumed by managing the storm that is hitting Mexico from the United States with the sudden changes implemented by President Trump in trade policy. So far, we can say that she has managed to calm tensions; Unite the business community behind the government and maintain a position of elegant distance, knowing that American consumers will make it clear to President Trump that they prefer Mexican tomatoes, avocados, pineapples, and lettuce to the exorbitantly priced local produce. And when that happens, President Trump will better understand the meaning of the word "nearshoring."

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