Mexico: The decline of the dinosaurs.

By: Beatrice E. Rangel - 27/05/2024

On June 2, Claudia Sheinbaum and Xóchitl Gálvez will appear before the sovereign to capture their favor. According to the polls, Claudia Sheinbaum has a comfortable lead that makes her appear as the virtual president-elect of Mexico. Xóchilt Gálvez, for his part, represents a coalition of traditional parties such as the PRI and the PAN and the PRD - formed by Cuauhtémoc Cardenas and Porfirio Munoz Ledo, young Turks of the PRI who decided to no longer tolerate the repressive regime of the party of the revolution and form part store. The coalition that supports Xóchilt Gálvez represents the swan song of traditional Mexican politics initiated more than a century ago by the founders of the PRI and the PAN. The first with the mission of protecting the achievements of the Mexican Revolution. El Segundo as an organization dedicated to the defense of Catholicism and free enterprise. The PRI gave rise to two political parties, the PRD and Morena. Created by Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador when the PRI denied him the presidential candidacy.

But beyond the flags that both candidates represent, without suspecting them, they will be protagonists of the end of a Latin American era characterized by the political prominence of multi-class groups in the style of APRA of Peru, National Liberation of Costa Rica; Democratic Action of Venezuela and the Justicialist Party of Argentina. Because once the votes are counted, the coalition that supports . This minority could be enough to block any constitutional reform promoted by Morena, but not to promote democratizing and liberating reforms of the economy. And there Ms. Gálvez will possibly play an important role in maintaining the unity of the coalition that presented her as a presidential candidate to act as a retaining wall for Morena's policies.

Then the figure of Claudia Sheinbaum comes into play. Many Mexican analysts fear that Morena's second term will be characterized by the current president's repressive and defiant attitude against the media, free enterprise and democratic safeguards.

This, however, even though it may be possible, would brutally affect the management of the new president. Because while it is true that in the sphere of foreign investments, the new president will have a flood of income, there are other dilemmas of a structural nature that will be difficult to resolve without achieving temporary parliamentary majorities. Such is the case of the energy crisis resulting from the cessation of the liberation plan agreed upon and legislated by former President Pena Nieto. Another really serious problem is the shortage of drinking water that threatens to create rebellions in the neighborhoods of the main Mexican cities. Not to mention organized crime whose imprint has stopped being hidden to parade through the cities that cover the drug route, frightening the population and deciding who can or cannot opt for elective positions as municipalities; mayors and governors. Insight Crime magazine estimated a couple of years ago that 35% of small or medium-sized cities in Mexico are effectively controlled by drug cartels. The flow of migrants from throughout Latin America, the Caribbean and overseas is another serious problem that has repercussions for relations with the United States. None of these problems can be effectively addressed without the support of Congress. And although Morena seems to be aimed at preserving the current parliamentary majority, it does not seem feasible for him to reach the two-thirds supermajority.

The only positive angle for the new president is the flood of foreign investments that will intensify with the departure of Lopez Obrador, whom the global private sector sees as a threat. In fact, thanks to what is called near shoring in English, which is nothing more than taking advantage of the existence of a free trade agreement between the United States and Mexico to open operations in Mexican territory and better serve United States consumers by exploiting a lower cost structure than predominates in Jefferson country.

Fortunately for Mexico, both Ms. Sheinbaum and Ms. Gálvez are entrepreneurs. Therefore, they know the value of investments and the need for them to flow in order to have a greater flow of taxes and tributes with which to attack the list of problems that are beginning to threaten traditional Mexican political stability. Therefore, neither of them is going to take measures to prevent the arrival of these flows. President Lopez Obrador, then, seems on his way to writing his memoirs because if he thinks that Mrs. Sheinbaum is going to be a kind of puppet, surprises will abound. Likewise, if the traditional political leadership expects Ms. Gálvez to carry out a clientelistic scheme as has been the tradition of the past embodied by the PRI and the PAN, she is going to hit a wall. Because she is a successful entrepreneur and owner and leader of a technology services company that knows how to compete in the North American market.

In short, these elections will inevitably be won by a person who represents the middle class formed in the shadow of the free trade agreement with the United States and as such sees the world with a global lens; She knows how to compete and is familiar with the largest liberal democracy in the world. With any of them the dinosaurs of Mexican politics will finally retire. Because two other factors that will weigh in these elections and in the next ones are the nascent Citizen Movement, a party that integrates hundreds of civil society organizations and Mexicans residing in the United States. The latter have become aware of the significance of the transfers they make to support their relatives in Mexico and are not willing to vote for someone who endangers the use of those resources. The growth of the Citizen Movement was clear in the preference of university students for Jorge Alvarez Máynez, their candidate, who in a trial election voted for Sheinbaum as the first option and for Alvarez as the second. This reveals that traditional parties do not have a majority source of growth.

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