Is a Pax Germanica possible?
By: Beatrice E. Rangel - 24/12/2025
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To the surprise of many, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's statements about the end of Pax Americana have been largely ignored by the media and commentators. Just a week ago, Merz stated, “The decades of Pax Americana for Europe and Germany are over. It no longer exists as we knew it. Nostalgia will not help us, and I would be the last person to succumb to it. This is a reality! The Americans now fiercely defend their interests. And therefore, we must now defend ours.”
Since Germans are not known for their abundance of pronouncements, when they do speak, we must listen and analyze what they say. And the German Chancellor tells us that his country is prepared to take on the challenge of leading Europe in these turbulent times. The question that arises is: can Germany truly spearhead a kind of political paradigm shift for Europe? And will this leadership be distinct from that of the United States, or complementary?
From a strictly economic standpoint, Germany has no competition within the European Union. In 2024, Germany's GDP was €4.3 trillion, while that of the rest of Europe barely reached €18 trillion. In the area of trade, Germany exports to almost every country in the world and imports from the United States, China, France, the Netherlands, and Poland. Germany is the European nation that has made the greatest effort to secure the approval of the Free Trade Agreement with Mercosur.
Internally, the German population is united behind the cause of development and is the most vibrant and wealthy middle class in all of Europe. Regarding immigration, Germany has successfully integrated its immigrant population into its cultural fabric.
Under these conditions, it would seem that Germany is poised to achieve European leadership. However, the path to leadership is fraught with obstacles. First, it will have to confront the competition from France, a nation that lacks Germany's strengths but sees itself as the European spokesperson. France controls a group of smaller, tributary nations whose votes are numerous and essential to supporting German aspirations. Second, there is the issue of Ukraine. For Germany, Ukraine is vital to the European defense against Russian designs, which it suspects have far more expansionist plans. This position puts Germany in direct conflict with Hungary, which is pro-Russian. From the perspective of their visions for Europe, France favors greater integration among European nations, while Germany prefers the universalization of fiscal discipline and the adoption of economic realism. These differences have placed Germany and France in opposing positions within the European Union, which has had to resolve the conflict by imposing one vision or the other through voting.
But this was the dynamic in non-turbulent times. Now, the nations of Europe know that it is necessary to regroup under a single leadership to overcome the challenges of their defense, economic growth, and the protection of democracy. They also know that France's political system is in crisis, as is its economic vitality. Therefore, from an economic standpoint, Germany is a better railway than France. And this could very well produce a significant change in the pace of development and the defense of democracy in the European sphere. Because Germany brings to this process the great asset of its experience with reunification to accelerate the integration of European economies. It is also likely to bring to Europe its trade relations with China, India, Japan, and Southeast Asia. And it will certainly bring greater fiscal discipline to the European sphere. In short, the probability is high that this century will see the establishment of the Pax Germanica.
«The opinions published herein are the sole responsibility of its author».