Hemispheric transitions

By: Beatrice E. Rangel - 08/01/2025

January will mark the beginning of several transitions with consequences for the entire 21st century. These changes cannot be postponed because they are driven by social forces that were incubated in the 20th century under the protection of advances in telecommunications, international air and sea transport, and economic growth in regions other than the Western Hemisphere.

The first and most visible transition is occurring in the United States. Because beyond the abrupt change in the vision of public policies embodied by President Donald Trump, his administration will be marked by three milestones. The first is the departure from political and economic prominence of the post-war generation known as the baby boomer. That generation, defined by Bruce Cannon Gibney as a generation of sociopaths, has distinguished itself by being self-centered; an extractor of public income and a seeker of easy and automatic rewards. These traits contrast with those that defined the generation that preceded it, called the golden generation for the contributions it made to domestic stability and the consolidation of freedom at a global level. The golden generation offered its life in World War II and upon returning home distinguished itself by being a leader in fundamental issues for domestic stability such as the fight for civil rights. On the international level, it created the international institutional framework that stabilized a world destroyed by war. The second milestone is marked by the rise of the X and millennial generations to government and business leaders. These generational strata are distinguished by seeing the world in terms of ethical or civic crusades. They are in favor of protecting the environment and good business practices. They are entrepreneurs and therefore creators of wealth. They are immersed in the world of technology and represent a different vision of the career path. For them, life is divided into chapters and in each chapter work must be a source of personal growth and of the society that surrounds them. They are the kids of Silicon Valley. With President Trump, many of them enter the government with the help of their sons Donald and Eric. And with them, the center of economic gravity of the United States shifts, finally passing from the industrial economy to the digital economy. The question that arises is whether this generation will be able to repair the errors of the Baby Boomers since they inherit a debt of 110% of GDP; an excessive growth of the state and a burden with the transfer programs that overwhelm the effectiveness and efficiency of the American state.

The latest milestone is the economic rise of a non-Western nation on whose productivity and consumption the health of the West depends. This is China, a country that boasts one of the most vibrant and growing middle classes in the world. It is about 400 million people whose income allows them to cover all family needs and have 20% of that income for discretionary spending and who have a propensity to save of 35%. These figures reveal the presence of an immense market for Western services. In fact, it has been proven that the luxury industry remains robust and growing thanks to Chinese demand. For an indebted economy like that of the United States, finding ways to exploit the Chinese market is a formula for sure growth. This, by the way, was one of David Rockefeller's convictions. Will the American leadership be able to clear ideology and economics to overcome the current disagreements with China and manage to steer its economy on a path of sure growth? This is the dilemma of the century!!!

The second transition is taking place in Latin America. Several nations on the continent are showing signs of state implosion. Bolivia seems to be heading straight for an implosion under the heat of the struggle between two different drug cartels nested in Mexico that want to place their most reliable partner in the executive branch. And this is how the struggle between Luis Arce and Evo Morales should be seen. In Venezuela, civil society has given a fixed term to the criminal regime of plunder that has taken over the land of Bolivar. In Cuba, the implosion has not occurred because on the opposition side there is no Oswaldo Paya at the head of the popular protest that, despite being incessant and not giving the government a break, lacks strategic sense. In Argentina, Javier Milei seems to have the secret of making capitalism work in the Peronist homeland. In short, a rebirth of freedom is coming in the region, whose sign seems to be firmer because it rides on the shoulders of civil society and not of the elites. Freedom should bring with it economic openness and with it a new stage of growth that is much stronger and more lasting than what we have known until now.

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