Geopolitics: Why the Trump emulsion doesn't work

By: Beatrice E. Rangel - 04/09/2025

Those who have done business with the current President of the United States, Donald J. Trump, or collaborated on his TV show, The Apprentice, claim he possesses the gift of charm. And when he exerts his charm, he becomes irresistible. Hence, we all expected that by now the conflicts raging in Ukraine and Venezuela were on the way to a solution. However, we observe with genuine regret that Ukraine is subjected to increasing attacks day by day, while Russia, without blinking, destroys thousands of lives daily and leaves part of the productive apparatus in ashes.

This raises the question of why the seductive abilities of the President of the United States have ceased to work.

If we begin with the conflict that threatens to destroy Ukraine, we see how the United States' persuasive capabilities are truly diminished in the 21st century. Russia cares little about relations with the West. According to the Kremlin's prevailing view, the emerging power pole is in Asia, and that is where its political and diplomatic efforts should be directed. Europe and the United States are declining nations and can be cornered by spending on defense, thus unbalancing their fiscal accounts and negatively impacting the famous "welfare state." Once this is achieved, Europe will turn on itself, and its weakening will open unexpected doors for Russia to rise to the pinnacle of global power. The United States, for its part, is far enough away to not pose an immediate threat, and once it takes possession of Ukraine, Russia will be able to negotiate the Antarctic issue with the United States from a position of strength. Meanwhile, Russia is moving closer to nations defined as rivals (China) or punished for having economic relations with it (India). In the process, a new bloc with immense economic and political potential is being formed. Both India and China are nuclear powers, and economically they are complementary powers. In short, a geopolitical nucleus is forming with equal or greater power than the one we saw in the postwar period when the United States-Europe-Japan Group emerged. With this geopolitical pull, the ability to seduce is taking a backseat.

In the case of Venezuela, it is evident that the Trump administration does not want to create a conflict of fantastic proportions that would force it to put boots on the ground and have to confront an enraged electorate, to whom it promised to remove the United States from conflicts and not start new ones. This explains the trips by special envoys to rescue citizens and attempt to negotiate solutions. Faced with the criminal obstinacy of the leaders of the Venezuelan narco-state, the United States decided to change the plan. Hence, it opted for the deployment of military power in Caribbean waters with the intention of suffocating the regime. Economic suffocation could lead to the uprising of the hitherto loyal armed forces. And that is where we are today. To think that there will be a Panama or Iraq scenario is simply absurd. What is not absurd is to sit back and wait for the destructive forces of the regime to end up devouring those who refused at the time to be seduced by President Trump's envoys. They would have offered ways out of the Venezuelan tragedy that possibly would have allowed them to enjoy a comfortable retirement. That is, what they stole from all citizens when they stormed the Venezuelan state. But the Venezuelan drug lords can't be seduced by President Trump's offers because they know the crimes they've committed will eventually land them in prison.

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