Gaza and Ukraine

By: Ricardo Israel - 15/10/2023

What we are witnessing in Gaza between Hamas and Israel will not only have repercussions in the Middle East, but with some probability will have consequences in the invasion of Ukraine.

It is not that a similar supply of weapons is needed (only ammunition), but that there is a potential for it to spread to neighboring countries and bring with it a regional war, starting from the possibility that the conflict between Iran and Israel through Hamas and Hezbollah will soon become a direct confrontation.

That is to say, the big difference is that the war on Ukrainian soil is limited to a delimited geographical space, while what has begun in biblical lands can become a regional conflict.

The Russian invasion has been a type of war that the 20th century accustomed us to, that is, one reduced to state actors and military alliances, while the Middle East incorporates non-state actors that control territories, Gaza in the case of Hamas and southern Lebanon in the case of Hezbollah. It is true that Ukraine has also been the first global war of the 21st century due to its impact on the fuel and food markets, but a regional conflict in the Middle East has the potential to generate disastrous consequences for the world economy, as recalled. which occurred with the Yom Kippur War of 1973 and the subsequent oil embargo, and the Iranian Islamic Revolution of 1979.

There is no doubt that the collapse of the Israeli border, and the subsequent invasion of a thousand or so terrorists, with its consequence of terrible human rights violations, was unexpected due to the gigantic failure of the intelligence services, and that the Russian invasion was expected. due to the concentration of troops on the Ukrainian border, but the subsequent concatenation of events and events in Gaza has followed a pattern that will impact Ukraine.

The most relevant of them is what has been happening with the United States. This is how the power was increasingly divided between whether to support Ukraine or not, as expressed by doubts about whether the House of Representatives under Republican control would support this time the aid package that the White House wants.

However, that doubt does not exist in the case of support for Israel, where Republicans and Democrats are totally united, as is the majority of American public opinion. It was almost automatic, in a certain way, the reaction to the violation of every code of civilization by the terrorists on October 7 with their orgy of murders of women, the elderly, children, the kidnapping of more than a hundred people to be used as human shields, which in the words of President Biden, reminded us of the worst of Daesh, the Islamic State.

There has not been a reaction of this automatism for a long time, perhaps since the time of the Cold War, and the unconditional support of the USA for Israel reminded us of the way it supported it in the Yom Kippur War.

For its part, the mass media reported as it had done for years that this was not happening in favor of Israel, even in media that had harshly criticized it for a long time, such as the great liberal press, exemplified by the New York Times and CNN. Furthermore, Washington achieved something that was not given either, which is the support of the main European countries.

The White House forgot the rift with Netanyahu (which had come in the case of President Biden since Obama's mandate and was on both sides, due to the signing of the nuclear agreement with Iran), to give unconditional support for what is coming, which It is the bombing of Gaza and the entry of troops in sufficient numbers for a very complicated urban war to remove Hamas from power, in a similar way to its model, which is the way the USA and also Russia eliminated Daesh in Syria and Iraq. , an image that shows what Israel hopes to do, this time with international legitimation for Jerusalem.

And without a doubt, the massacres of October 7 explain very well why Israel cannot lose any war and what would happen to its population if it loses one.

In any case, the prospect of a regional dispute and its consequences for world trade are also a reason why Europe may also be concerned, in a way other than its commitment to Ukraine, about the economic consequences for a continent, which would have a much more complicated situation than the USA.

The biggest impact for Ukraine may be a shift in strategic priorities for NATO as the combination of regional war and global consequences would likely push Ukraine toward a negotiated settlement of the war, with the possibility of loss. territorial. This is one of kyiv's main fears and is recurring in what Zelensky expresses publicly and has happened before (see What about Ukraine?, Infobae, February 25, 2022)

It seems harsh, but it is also a consequence of a stagnation in the war, which manifested itself first in the Russian failure to take Kiev, and then in its offensive that only reached Bakhmut (or Artemovsk). For its part, the Ukrainian counteroffensive has so far not achieved any of its objectives and has stalled.

This situation contributes to the maintenance of a type of conflict that is usually the favorable scenario for a negotiation or at least a ceasefire, which neither Kiev nor Moscow want today, but seems inevitable, even if there is a new Russian offensive on next year.

If we add to this that differences have emerged between Ukraine and neighbors such as Poland, that at the last NATO summit in July in Lithuania Ukraine did not achieve any of its objectives in relation to near accession, and that there are signs that the honeymoon is not the same as before, it is necessary to think about this scenario, which could have been presented in the first meeting after the invasion, and which perhaps did not prosper due to the demonstrations of total support from the United States and Europe, and the assurances that were then given to Ukraine.

However, the war started by Russia today is one of attrition that favors the invader, which suffers from sanctions that have failed to stop its war machine, which is manifested not only in the problem shared with Ukraine of lack of ammunition, but also in which it continues to attack with missiles on a daily basis for which there does not seem to be sufficient defense, nor has Ukraine been supplied with the elements that allow it to have an Air Force or an equivalent navy.

In other words, the role of the United States is key in arms, intelligence and budget support for Ukraine, without which it would be difficult for it to continue the war, and without a doubt, the commitment that the United States has shown to Israel can only increase under the conditions of electoral campaign that the USA has entered for the presidency of the country, with the doubt of whether President Biden will win his re-election.

It may come as a surprise to many, but usually, as happened in Korea, this type of impasse leads to ceasefires that sometimes transform into almost definitive situations of separation. And in the case of the invasion of Ukraine, the international press has perhaps not provided an accurate view of how terrible the war has been and how it has punished the invaded country, which sooner or later will have to face a costly reconstruction, with the doubt of whether Europe will want to speed up or rather delay entry, due to its cost.

It sounds harsh, but it seems realistic. It is enough to observe the speed with which media interest has shifted towards the Middle East to understand that the concern of governments may also move away, especially if economic clouds loom.

Undoubtedly, it sounds and is unfair that interest in Ukraine is lost and that it can serve the person who originated everything (which should not be forgotten) with the invasion and violation of international law, which is Russia. However, a regionalization scenario in the Middle East not only harms Ukraine, but can also drag down Russia due to its commitments in Syria (where it has a very important base) and those recently acquired by its alliance with Iran. Even Israel itself has taken the war in Ukraine with caution, since, while supporting Ukraine, it has not wanted to antagonize Russia, since during the civil war in Syria it had a security agreement with Putin where they did not attack each other, despite being on rival sides, and Russia did not intervene every time Syria entered into aerial combat with Iran, largely favorable to Israel.

It is undoubtedly an increasingly interconnected world, where the USA, through aircraft carriers, returned to the Middle East, aware of the mistake it made by distancing itself from the region in the Obama administration, a luxury that a superpower cannot afford. Only the arrival of Russia was obtained, and, in any case, it had to return militarily, when the Islamic State appeared.

Since 1948, for Israel and the War of Independence, all wars have been different. Gaza will be too, with the enormous difficulty of urban warfare, but it is also obliged to win it, although it has learned that winning wars does not lead to peace.

It is a war that leads to Tehran, just like what is happening today in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen. Hamas does not want a Palestinian state, it is just a step in its Islamist doctrinal ideology. He wants the destruction of Israel, its very existence as well as being a State with a majority of Jews, he sees it as a provocation. Like Iran, theirs is the caliphate (although at some point they will confront whether it is Shia or Sunni).

More than a territorial issue, in the Middle East the dream of ISIS is still present, a caliphate in every land that once had an Islamic presence (also in Spain, which Hamas continues to call Al Andalus). For this purpose, human life is not of great importance, since every Jew or Christian (or other Islamic people who do not recognize them as such) are heretics and therefore deserve death, and they do not respect the lives of their own people whom they use as human shield, since he sees them as martyrs. And if you don't understand this, you don't understand anything about what is also happening with Hamas.

Israel is clear about this, and the massacres of October 7 have allowed it to take off the gloves and have an international understanding that had previously been denied to it. For this reason, the Hamas leaders who ordered them, even if they are not captured in this offensive, will be persecuted wherever they are, serving as a basis for what happened to those who gave orders for the massacre at the Munich Olympic Games in 1972, who were persecuted. by a special team until they are located. Perhaps there is a trial of some hierarchy, similar to that of Eichmann.

The problem for Israel in Gaza is to enter and be able to leave, that is, to learn from the failure of the USA in Afghanistan and Iraq, in the first case, they handed over power to the Taliban after 20 years, and in the other, today the most influential country in Baghdad it is none other than its old enemy, Iran. For Israel, the equivalent (within the possibilities) would be to find itself with a worse alternative, even less prone to negotiation, in the form of Islamic Jihad or Hamas with a different name. And if he unilaterally withdrew from Gaza in 2005, taking every last Jew, it was never to return. And that objective failed.

Are you thinking about who is in charge of Gaza? The most logical thing would be a group of Arab countries that support the Palestinian Authority, in case it wants to take charge, as well as fulfill its Oslo responsibilities, including those that it never wanted or could honor, such as security.

It would be the way to relaunch the peace process, and perhaps, to appear in Mahmoud Abbas's succession what has been missing since 1948, that is, a partner for peace.

What happened on October 7 and the chain of massacres and horrors was an unforgivable failure of security and intelligence. The State failed its inhabitants, perhaps for the first time in such a serious way. Worse than Yom Kippur and worse than September 11 in the USA, since the number of deaths in such a small population is equivalent to more than 35,000 deaths, except that in the United States a dozen terrorists participated, while in Israel they exceeded a thousand .

Not only that, Netanyahu, as well as the intelligence and security systems, were not only surprised, but they were deceived, convinced as they were that Hamas did not want war but rather negotiate in good faith, accepting the entry of 20,000 workers each day and the transfer of money from Qatar to Gaza.

That error was the basis of a lax intelligence that ignored all signals, and according to what was published by the New York Times, it also focused on an excess of technology, with drones being enough to decouple the signal. And like the USA in 2001, the importance of human intelligence had been forgotten, I add.

And not only Israel was wrong, but also the USA, suffice it to say in the interview with National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, who said a few days before that, unlike other times, not much would be happening in the Middle East. If the past is of any use, it was that there will surely be a High Level Commission that will not hesitate to demand accountability. On Yom Kippur, the Report ended the political careers of none other than Golda Meir and Moshe Dayan, two founders of the country.

Now, with some probability it will happen to Netanyahu, and if he is found responsible, regardless of what happens in Gaza, it would be his end as prime minister.

For Hamas, it is the repetition of what has happened with jihadism and the damage that political Islam has done to Muslims, who have ended up confronting other cultures where they have shared neighborhood. Not only Jews, but also Christians in the crusades, no matter how much they were initiated by others, China (the end of the Silk Road), Russia (Chechnya), Armenia (Nagorno Karabakh and Azerbaijan), India (Pakistan) and Buddhists (Myanmar).

Personally, what has impacted me the most is the survival of the oldest of phobias, Judeophobia, which reappears in the form of anti-Zionism, in the number of people who justified the horror of October 7 around all over the world, and especially in the West, including the applause of so many progressive student federations in a place as unexpected as the USA, under the complacent and complicit gaze of many university authorities.

Just like so much opinion in the media and social networks of those who refuse to condemn, arguing context and looking for pretexts to equalize responsibilities, instead of condemning the horror experienced, which undoubtedly recalls Holocaust denialism. Basically, just because the victims are Jewish.

And what remains incomprehensible to me, the support for Hamas, of some or many feminists and of those who display LGTBQIA flags, with the doubt of whether they ignore or are uninformed about what would happen to them if it depended on those leaders.

In conclusion, on the one hand, the Palestinian issue is not going to disappear, and although Saudi Arabia has only postponed its normalization with Israel, the Palestinian State continues to be the requirement for definitive acceptance in the region, while, on the other, Despite its repeated failure, too many people continue to confuse the Palestinian cause with the justification of terrorism.

@israelzipper

-PhD in Political Science (Essex), Lawyer (U de Chile, Barcelona), former presidential candidate in Chile (2013),

«The opinions published herein are the sole responsibility of its author».