From the Strait of Hormuz to the Caspian Sea: Iran's strategic resilience

By: Beatrice E. Rangel - 12/05/2026

For months, many Western analysts, myself included, assumed that Iran would struggle to withstand a combination of Israeli military pressure, US sanctions, and maritime restrictions on its exports. The hypothesis seemed logical: an economy subjected to years of financial isolation could hardly resist a simultaneous tightening of the geopolitical and commercial noose.

However, reality has proven to be more complex.

Far from collapsing, Tehran has demonstrated considerable logistical adaptability. Moreover, it has avoided accepting the terms promoted by Washington for opening negotiations aimed at a new international monitoring framework. The explanation for this resilience lies not only in the Persian Gulf or the Strait of Hormuz, but also in a geopolitical space long underestimated by the West: the Caspian Sea.

For much of the 20th century, the Caspian Sea remained relatively hidden behind the strategic structure of the Soviet Union. However, Soviet fragmentation gradually transformed the region into an axis of energy, trade, and military competition among Russia, Iran, Turkey, China, and the West. Today, this seemingly peripheral geography is re-emerging as one of the silent centers of the new Eurasian order.

The Caspian Sea has become a key component of alternative trade corridors seeking to reduce dependence on Western-dominated maritime routes. Particularly important is the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a multimodal system of ports, railways, and roads connecting Russia with Iran and India via the Caspian. According to estimates from the Russian government and regional organizations, this route could reduce logistics costs by up to 30% and significantly shorten transport times between Europe and Asia.

In this context, the Caspian Sea functions simultaneously as an energy corridor, a trade platform, and a strategic rearguard. Hydrocarbons, industrial goods, technological components, and military supplies flow through it, allowing Russia and Iran to partially mitigate the impact of Western sanctions.

The region's energy importance is equally considerable. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the Caspian Basin contains approximately 48 billion barrels of oil and nearly 292 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in proven and probable reserves. The region also connects key producers such as Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan to European and Asian markets, reinforcing its strategic importance to the global energy balance.

But the phenomenon transcends energy. What is emerging is a broader transformation of the world's economic geography. Financial sanctions and maritime blockades remain powerful instruments, though they no longer possess the near-absolute effectiveness they had during the post-Cold War unipolar period. Powers under Western pressure have begun to construct alternative land corridors and logistical systems capable of partially fragmenting the globalized trade order built over the past few decades.

History offers revealing precedents. When the Ottoman Empire consolidated its control over the traditional routes to East Asia in the 15th and 16th centuries, European powers responded by seeking new sea routes around Africa. This reconfiguration profoundly altered the global economic balance and accelerated the rise of Atlantic Europe. And it linked the Americas to the rest of the world.

Today, a less visible but equally significant transformation may be taking place. Faced with a maritime system historically dominated by the West, Eurasia is developing alternative continental corridors that reduce the strategic vulnerability of actors such as Russia, Iran, and, to a lesser extent, China.

This does not signify the end of Western influence or the collapse of the existing global system. But it does suggest that international geoeconomic power is entering a more fragmented, competitive, and multipolar stage.

In this new scenario, the Caspian Sea—for decades considered a geopolitical periphery—could end up playing a much more decisive role than many Western strategists imagined.

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