Can Elon Musk redraw the political map of the United States?

By: Beatrice E. Rangel - 16/07/2025

When Elon Musk left Donald Trump's administration, the entire world breathed a sigh of relief. For politicians, his departure from government meant a respite because they knew his obsession with reducing the government was not, and is not, controllable by any force outside of Musk himself. Businesspeople also breathed a sigh of relief because Musk's presence in government equated them with the Trump administration. And the young people who passionately follow him also celebrated the decision, believing that Musk could now focus on issues relevant to them, such as the integration of AI into work tasks and leisure breaks.

But no one expected to hear Musk himself say that he isn't abandoning politics but will lead a political movement of his own making. And while Mr. Musk hasn't been very explicit about the details of the project, many predict that for the first time in the history of the United States, there will be a libertarian party. So the question arises: what does it mean to be a libertarian in the 21st century?

Libertarians believe in the economic and government concepts of individualism, spontaneous order, the rule of law, and limited government. They are free traders and detest hyperregulation. They are frugal with public spending and austere in personal administration. In short, they are the ideological seed of the republican movement that gave birth to the United States. At that time, there was no government led by the people. In fact, the writings of Alexis de Tocqueville and the statements of Sir Guy Carleton, the last commander of British troops in the United States, feature prominent expressions of admiration for what they consider a unique experience in the world: American self-government.

And this nostalgia for the seminal moment when a republic was born, created by the people and governed by the people, underlies the support of some sectors of American society for the administration led by Donald Trump. Most Americans care very little about being great again, but they do care about being free. And the disproportionate growth of the federal government has left many feeling that their freedom has been violated. Add to this the fact that this 21st century has been the scene of the greatest destruction of the middle class in the history of the United States. Indeed, through the bursting of the internet bubble in 2000; the bursting of the financial system with the mortgage crisis of 2008; and the paralysis of COVID-19 in 2020, the American middle class has shrunk. A chain of economic and health fatalities destroyed middle-class jobs, savings, and assets, thus throwing a significant proportion of American society into poverty. The outcome could not be worse. In 1997, 60% of individuals in the United States belonged to the middle class. Today, that number has dropped to 48%. That means that in 50 years, 12% of the American population has become poor.

Elon Musk understands this situation and believes that only by returning to the roots of self-governance, fiscal discipline, work ethic, and innovation can the United States return to the path of prosperity and success. Of course, he also believes in other issues regarding reproduction, racial purity, and interaction with extraterrestrial beings. But that's a topic for another analysis.

Armed with these beliefs, Mr. Musk will attempt to found and develop a third party capable of successfully competing against the Republican/Democratic establishment. History doesn't seem to predict much success. In 1912, Theodore Roosevelt's candidacy representing the Progressive Party is considered the most successful, obtaining more than 27% of the popular vote, which put him in second place in the Electoral College. Ross Perot also performed well in 1992, obtaining almost 19% of the popular vote. Another failed attempt was that of John Anderson, the Republican representative from Illinois in 1980, who competed against Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan.

Today, the fight is even more bitter because the Republican Party has been taken over by a populist, while the Democratic Party is dissolving like an Alka Seltzer in the waters of cultural radicalism and fiscal irresponsibility. Therefore, the captains of both ships will do everything possible to prevent the rise of someone who ignores and defies the rules of partisan politics. Furthermore, we must consider that a libertarian party already exists in the United States, and while it still lacks the strength to successfully confront the traditional parties, its new member registration rate has risen by 92% since 2008. Perhaps Mr. Musk's best option is to take this party by storm rather than starting a new one. After all, that is what his mentor, Donald Trump, has done with the Republican Party.

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